Movies · resolved market
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d3ab5a5971e0c52ae026d12f789e957023c707edc5ae8e07bc088d2f7a961c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $337,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc46…618cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,399$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 22,907$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 17,353$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 16,090$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 0c | 13,590$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…2e88backed Yes | 0c | 10,211$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…4fe7backed Yes | 1c | 10,110$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 0c | 8,868$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…4624backed Yes | 0c | 7,683$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 7,648$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x922a…6696backed Yes | 1c | 7,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,381$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…1ea4backed Yes | 1c | 5,940$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,582$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…9e05backed Yes | 1c | 5,443$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…d200backed Yes | 1c | 5,443$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…17c5backed Yes | 0c | 5,250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 5,150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…f6f3backed Yes | 0c | 4,583$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 4,444$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852b…9011backed Yes | 1c | 3,974$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…a1c6backed Yes | 0c | 3,561$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35c…b0cabacked Yes | 0c | 3,367$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,033$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 0c | 2,631$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,609$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…b6a9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60a…b45ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,221$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 1c | 2,081$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,031$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,703$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,686$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 1c | 1,581$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…5cd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,418$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 1,410$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…00e2backed Yes | 1c | 1,266$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…3570backed Yes | 2c | 866.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…4b34backed Yes | 4c | 562.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 21c | 493.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…78b6backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hikari win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jafar Panahi win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jon M. Chu win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Kleber Mendonça Filho win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Park Chan-wook win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Yorgos Lanthimos win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.