TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf579…b6a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ligue 1, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ligue 1 at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$59.73
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$45
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.97
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.51
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.2%+$117.06
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+39%+$58.47
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+37%+$14.79
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$12.76
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$53.15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.49
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,328.6%+$199.29
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+154.5%+$15.45
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+132%+$19.79
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14.39
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$33.83
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.19
Lakers vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Thunder vs. Magicbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$25
All 5 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$20.71
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+203%+$40.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$26.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.