Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0664bc47a38e4278cbfc94ce007265cdc73fbd69ab37109f8130c78188c7b251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,296 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 0c | 6,150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36d…3654backed No | 1c | 1,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 1c | 1,376$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 11c | 1,337$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.54 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…6fecbacked Yes | 48c | 1,293$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked No | 39c | 1,100$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.89 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 53c | 1,025$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.17 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 36c | 880.93$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.25 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 55c | 825.17$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.84 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 723.99$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…1e28backed No | 64c | 701.33$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 72c | 625.26$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.26 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 55c | 588.23$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 46c | 563.29$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.49 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed Yes | 61c | 560.81$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 38c | 517.96$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.55 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 10c | 476.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 75c | 462.23$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 33c | 456.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.55 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 51c | 416.08$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 56c | 413.59$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 374.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 40c | 349.57$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.94 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72b…72eebacked No | 67c | 299.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 14c | 296.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 295.97$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 42c | 292.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 15c | 290.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 59c | 276.72$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.37 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d6…2de6backed Yes | 59c | 264.75$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 7c | 252.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 246.02$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 32c | 243.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.22 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 8c | 240.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked No | 9c | 239.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…3594backed Yes | 43c | 232.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 14c | 228.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.59 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…1a5cbacked Yes | 63c | 196.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9a…b259backed Yes | 66c | 195$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 58c | 192.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 36c | 188.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed No | 44c | 188.54$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae59…cbc7backed No | 46c | 183.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 181.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.56 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…f309backed No | 14c | 152.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…9893backed Yes | 71c | 149.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 40c | 149.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 36c | 147.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 144.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 36c | 138.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 138$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 29c | 132.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e77…6762backed No | 38c | 130.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…09a4backed No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 128.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3144…9076backed Yes | 74c | 123.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 25c | 120.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…2f45backed Yes | 46c | 119.73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 46c | 108.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b2…4951backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e07fbacked Yes | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 61c | 97.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 21c | 93.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 63c | 93.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked No | 63c | 91.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dde…b8f1backed No | 59c | 89.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 77c | 87.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 84.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 59c | 83.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked No | 46c | 82.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276c…4cc1backed No | 68c | 79.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 35c | 79.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 78.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…223dbacked Yes | 46c | 77.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 48c | 74.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 66c | 74.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 55c | 72.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 71.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274d…ebbabacked No | 72c | 67.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed No | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 39c | 65.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3867…3a98backed Yes | 43c | 65.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…fd1bbacked No | 56c | 64.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88e…4383backed Yes | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 61.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 44c | 56.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 66c | 55.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 64c | 54.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C or below on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.