Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54977058b552228ccb6c9aeb4f307fc6de888f2250b1f60060bb18cdd0f72d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,239 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd08c…d206backed Yes | 12c | 1,453$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 9c | 1,174$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…e984backed Yes | 14c | 1,172$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 20c | 1,015$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 5c | 641.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…5b4abacked Yes | 9c | 614.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 568$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbe…842abacked Yes | 17c | 558.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 19c | 493.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 14c | 410.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 374.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 349.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 335.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 15c | 301.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 276.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…63d2backed Yes | 10c | 229.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 208.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 193.23$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 190.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 14c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 9c | 175.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 18c | 168$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 15c | 165.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 14c | 159.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c1…7258backed No | 77c | 156.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 149.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 15c | 138.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed Yes | 19c | 134.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…23f5backed No | 80c | 125.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 9c | 117.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 21c | 105.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…fd7dbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 78c | 92.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 85.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 18c | 81.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 19c | 75.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 23c | 74.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a2…7cdbbacked Yes | 17c | 69.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…b6a9backed Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…42acbacked No | 74c | 49.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…61c2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 24.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…01abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked No | 77c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.