Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd68c8376df71200ede84e4110d7f85c3fee2548fd42f3ba1533872da1e70c7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,148 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 2c | 62,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…678bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,877$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,114$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 2c | 5,921$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…2c48backed Yes | 21c | 3,801$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 2c | 3,306$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…87d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,211$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…bbd8backed No | 79c | 1,268$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9e…616fbacked No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…9e08backed No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 3c | 851.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 699.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e4…252dbacked Yes | 17c | 622.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 5c | 603.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…14babacked Yes | 22c | 543.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 11c | 517.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 6c | 504.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 499.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 7c | 415.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…0d0cbacked Yes | 12c | 402.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +206.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 394.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 12c | 344.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 339.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 19c | 331.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 319.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 43c | 316$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…0c40backed Yes | 21c | 312.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 262.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…1a73backed No | 68c | 251$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.51 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…90bfbacked Yes | 16c | 243.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…15f3backed Yes | 21c | 242.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…2066backed Yes | 30c | 238.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…ec75backed Yes | 15c | 234.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 23c | 232.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dba…a081backed Yes | 12c | 216.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 215.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 16c | 204.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…af28backed Yes | 29c | 201.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 17c | 192.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…076dbacked Yes | 16c | 182.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…0d3bbacked Yes | 17c | 169.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…3a2abacked Yes | 24c | 164.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 9c | 163.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…14f5backed Yes | 7c | 162.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 152.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 144.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 135$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…2807backed Yes | 15c | 130.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…6e12backed Yes | 23c | 129$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 128.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 13c | 126.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 79c | 118.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 45c | 118$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…ae15backed No | 76c | 112.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 13c | 112.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 13c | 107.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…237cbacked No | 73c | 106.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 102.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…3de0backed Yes | 18c | 93.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 15c | 86.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 28c | 84.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 16c | 78.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 77c | 77.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…aa62backed Yes | 14c | 76.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3a…5999backed Yes | 15c | 75.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…53d7backed Yes | 21c | 72.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 36c | 66.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 66.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…9294backed Yes | 27c | 65.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 63.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…41cdbacked Yes | 20c | 60.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 20c | 60.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…ffeebacked Yes | 21c | 59.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…dbadbacked No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 37c | 53.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…de9cbacked Yes | 27c | 52.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 69c | 51.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…dc73backed Yes | 28c | 51.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…1be3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…e2a0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 61c | 49.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.