Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63d6f6a99f66333a6b8b7a09f6e1f6959e3bffeff7b83eec1f7070f613f25c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,199 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eea…45b9backed No | 26c | 4,080$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Yes | 68c | 1,478$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…fc41backed Yes | 74c | 1,380$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…6736backed Yes | 74c | 1,350$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…792ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,350$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 10c | 1,083$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed No | 13c | 1,065$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…1949backed Yes | 69c | 982$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 67c | 959.03$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.8 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 69c | 727.73$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 8c | 664.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 73c | 657.81$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 65c | 608.06$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.84 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 67c | 514.65$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 63c | 499.94$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 50c | 377.79$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 362.26$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 79c | 353.66$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 74c | 334.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 63c | 324.65$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 55c | 219.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 72c | 200.01$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.34 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 198.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 71c | 187.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 174.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 44c | 167.53$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 63c | 165$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…b218backed No | 29c | 160.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 52c | 159.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed Yes | 66c | 150.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 149.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 38c | 148.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 37c | 147.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 137.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…a3bfbacked No | 12c | 135.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 61c | 131.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked Yes | 63c | 129.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 60c | 125.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 124.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 33c | 123.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 73c | 122.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 119.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 78c | 119.69$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 75c | 117.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…0c40backed Yes | 66c | 105.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 58c | 100.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…764abacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…7b89backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e5…87d9backed No | 14c | 92.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…af28backed Yes | 66c | 90.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…78c9backed Yes | 67c | 89.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 88.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 82.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…6373backed No | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 36c | 70.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 49c | 65.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 71c | 65.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed Yes | 68c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…1c9dbacked Yes | 65c | 61.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 67c | 61.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…e984backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 30c | 58.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 58.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 37c | 55.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 36c | 54.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 56c | 53.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 50c | 50.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 36c | 50.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…bb82backed No | 36c | 49.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 48c | 49.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…4dbabacked Yes | 65c | 46.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af0…f117backed Yes | 63c | 45.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…b352backed No | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 44.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 71c | 42.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…f7babacked Yes | 62c | 39.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…4752backed Yes | 78c | 38.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 49c | 38.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 67c | 37.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 5°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.