TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,323,996
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,154,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,323,996 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 542 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa616…527dbacked No1c250,775$2,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,61510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No2c174,303$4,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,064.649839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d4…781fbacked Yes35c108,844$38,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,417.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked No1c87,277$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7871…3364backed No65c75,728$49,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,223.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b78…4b4bbacked No1c69,585$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b75…f8fabacked No1c57,787$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x311c…d7cebacked No1c40,350$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9970…3b6bbacked No1c33,293$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e29…bba9backed No64c33,116$21,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,194.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No0c32,880$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No3c30,207$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.682913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a8…3b90backed No1c27,452$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb823…fb56backed No1c26,251$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b58…a713backed No1c24,382$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed No15c22,060$3,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,402.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa478…05c8backed No0c21,770$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f4…a781backed No1c19,580$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a8…3c3cbacked No1c18,203$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b45…3cbebacked No0c17,639$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb951…90a1backed No1c17,382$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a2…183fbacked No1c15,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb085…ed58backed No11c14,974$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5c…a5debacked No7c14,865$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa852…d55dbacked No2c13,259$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ed…ab59backed No7c13,075$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed Yes25c12,719$3,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,509.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+159.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed No1c12,600$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1003…2877backed No1c11,600$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8193…3581backed No1c10,598$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x611b…9841backed No1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…8ffdbacked No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f9…a5a6backed No1c9,541$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c9,528$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.272560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe717…d380backed No1c9,072$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa778…7f82backed No1c8,796$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ee…d720backed No6c8,554$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1479…054dbacked No9c7,874$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5a…a3a2backed No2c7,817$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ea…33cebacked No1c7,777$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…17a0backed No2c7,723$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3b…b94fbacked No1c7,044$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8d…8775backed No2c6,853$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c6,838$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8418311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes30c6,815$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.822339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes26c6,690$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,931.1619011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed No0c6,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1655…ad32backed No1c6,340$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-45.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes75c6,212$4,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,551.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6323…2851backed No1c6,167$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…4660backed No4c6,109$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No0c5,627$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes73c5,612$4,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.162774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x373c…3976backed No1c4,871$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb152…ef4cbacked No3c4,656$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62ba…569bbacked Yes20c4,430$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,526.731711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No2c4,405$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.351631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes37c4,209$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,636.8420130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes28c4,064$1,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.615825.9%15 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34cd…26adbacked No1c3,935$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2822…3f0cbacked No1c3,903$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1a…fea2backed No2c3,869$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No4c3,788$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.487222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes77c3,621$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.977946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked No3c3,581$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.212512%3 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+83.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ede…57c0backed No4c3,517$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2668…9555backed No1c3,492$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbecd…3398backed No1c3,485$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes30c3,127$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.18933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No1c3,067$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.72512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked No2c3,000$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01b…24a5backed No4c2,970$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes27c2,949$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.445343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b5…b7acbacked No1c2,884$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No72c2,871$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.851421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes71c2,847$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.7812050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed No4c2,845$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes33c2,840$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.9619040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7fda…e430backed No3c2,747$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f50…8be6backed No4c2,731$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes31c2,639$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.37425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f74…0c67backed No1c2,561$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…fe67backed No8c2,512$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5c4…252ebacked No1c2,506$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b91…4383backed No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b22…e51bbacked No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed No4c2,474$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7721…e819backed No2c2,422$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes60c2,420$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.7827536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d4…0fedbacked No4c2,410$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf3…57f7backed No1c2,386$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d31…4bbebacked No1c2,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e7a…7c74backed No7c2,280$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68f7…f351backed Yes13c2,280$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+153.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e24…29dfbacked No1c2,143$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d69…03cbbacked No1c2,116$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No2c2,061$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.986331.7%20 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a4c…c87dbacked No1c2,039$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cff…1c15backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100329.4%3 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.