TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e0f…9556

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: IPO, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 54 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,141Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,141.03
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$287Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$92.85
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.42
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$757Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$274.84
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$5.74
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$5,775Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+62.1%+$3,588.29
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,309Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$976.9
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,253Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+117.5%+$3,824.39
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,009.74
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,021Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,020.82
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+394%+$1,391
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$5,979Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,979.14
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$778Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$777.79
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,499.48
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15,100.34
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,000
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13,243.39
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$3,000
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+101.4%+$3,042.11
Will no qualifying US-Iran meeting occur by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+33.2%+$103.27
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,627Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$2,626.79
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$491.89
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,100
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,940Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$1,939.81
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$7,503Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$7,502.97
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+94.3%+$94.27
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,320.42
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+217.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+217.7%+$217.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$6,012Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+212.1%+$12,751.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$3,912Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$1,717.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$10.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,392Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,392.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.