TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$248,806
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,806 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c38,322$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.7835519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88e5…66b2backed Yes15c20,544$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c12,709$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.0333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes4c8,855$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.72626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes4c5,507$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4913029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5532626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,887$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.941,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c87…fce0backed Yes5c3,500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e8…be6cbacked Yes7c3,499$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes4c2,859$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.184850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbfc1…5fa3backed Yes3c2,530$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.71825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+227.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes6c2,500$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.098632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c2,473$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.711428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x714e…beeebacked Yes1c2,202$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes14c2,040$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x59ae…6264backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick4cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes1c1,992$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ca…7ab1backed Yes1c1,925$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc030…22e4backed Yes3c1,814$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Yes32c1,584$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c1,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1518725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c1,345$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.67827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7335…10cbbacked Yes4c1,318$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e8…3bcdbacked Yes1c1,282$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+98.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc178…0768backed Yes19c1,264$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x830e…7099backed Yes13c1,134$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.391145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No76c1,058$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.427441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes39c1,000$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.273517.1%6 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes12c1,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f3…9317backed Yes2c995$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes4c992.33$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.072119%4 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed Yes1c981.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes4c975$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4311010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked Yes2c933$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0d…1081backed Yes1c871.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c853.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.611343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe352…f259backed Yes8c845.56$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.772227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes2c800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2719638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c770.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfcd…9111backed Yes13c767.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ac…d9e3backed Yes7c731.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+81%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6974…1287backed Yes14c715.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes8c700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.598231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c671.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2744111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94b3…a66cbacked Yes7c646.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes4c601.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6110%0 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes10c601.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.142948.3%14 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+55.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6677…4ea3backed Yes13c600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes5c595$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes5c584.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Yes18c559.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c533$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00fd…a154backed Yes8c505.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.95911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5293…426abacked Yes20c504.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes7c500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked Yes7c463.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c450$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No80c442.48$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.926459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes11c410$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.15742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2f…d648backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4490%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2819348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes20c370$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.912839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No35c355.08$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.83966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfb43…de73backed Yes5c343.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe699…8790backed Yes13c331$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4932…9c3bbacked Yes61c326.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b6c…890ebacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+22.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39b6…e6e7backed Yes6c295$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53f…a264backed Yes5c292$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.83333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ed…112bbacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes10c275$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.025225%13 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes22c248.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2219435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fd…c2e2backed Yes9c230$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee3…3c83backed Yes9c222.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-84.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes14c222$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.089347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No75c216.6$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3518746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9630…b278backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+150.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x178c…5ac6backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1dc9backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7111…27aebacked Yes6c180$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed Yes58c172.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5938…96e6backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b2…a51abacked Yes33c151.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9682…738bbacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…80aebacked Yes22c124.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes15c111$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.658229.3%24 W · 58 L-11.1wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c107.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7911529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes12c105$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63754.1%20 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2a33…b73ebacked Yes11c102.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cd4…8853backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x180f…9286backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252532%8 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…115fbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes12c97.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.67265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.