TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$394,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6fa…a4e1backed Yes29c34,131$9,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,897.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf920…0559backed No71c34,131$24,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,897.99366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes14c18,488$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,582.32828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No79c6,268$4,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,295.468450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c3,982$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No76c3,354$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.213029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes11c3,116$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.276442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes23c2,850$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.5837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No73c2,071$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.869142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes8c1,901$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.563989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No76c1,445$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.073938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes10c1,439$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.44717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.771,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes10c1,048$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5216535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5f3c…3ef7backed Yes9c1,028$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes15c1,024$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4718033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d7…6977backed Yes8c961.52$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6470%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes11c900$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.41936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…2c06backed Yes9c777$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ae…0a8fbacked Yes9c699$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes25c689$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.625916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No77c682.8$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.249533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No69c680$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.5911347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes9c635.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.845825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf07…65e5backed Yes9c633$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e69…c0c8backed Yes17c619.44$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c597.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.145614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf63…e272backed Yes7c581$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61aa…2ec1backed Yes7c579$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes13c571.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6718725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c566.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9235519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c8…9be6backed Yes9c560.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e9…76afbacked Yes9c542$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edb…8f0ebacked Yes8c538$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes6c535.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5814230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab4a…096cbacked Yes9c517$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c515.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e54…c4aebacked Yes7c514$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc25…1cafbacked Yes9c513$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed Yes12c507.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.053033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes8c499.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.73638.9%14 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c06…fc88backed Yes8c499$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a47…caeabacked Yes9c497$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f5…9608backed Yes7c486$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa0…53e1backed Yes7c481$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a7…2ad3backed Yes8c453$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e38…56d6backed Yes10c439.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7490%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6159…a9cbbacked Yes9c428.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c6…b3fdbacked Yes6c416$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc28…618ebacked Yes9c415$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1e…68a3backed Yes8c414$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71f…7715backed Yes9c410$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825b…56ccbacked Yes9c410$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03d5…ce00backed Yes7c408$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe58…ef41backed Yes7c390$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a98…981cbacked Yes8c390$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…8b46backed Yes8c385$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes16c381.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec2a…81c1backed Yes11c379.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d3…a657backed Yes9c377$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d6…e827backed Yes7c366$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89c…145abacked Yes7c365$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…7e0dbacked Yes7c363$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5c7…258ebacked Yes7c357$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd144…db32backed Yes8c355$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…71f7backed Yes9c348$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0d…ca7fbacked Yes7c339$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d7…9665backed Yes6c333$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…0d69backed Yes9c332$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9134…9305backed Yes7c331$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df9…b297backed Yes9c328$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x555b…fa0bbacked Yes7c327$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9063…3443backed Yes7c323$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3727…4650backed Yes8c322$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa79…b995backed Yes8c322$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd41…324cbacked Yes7c320$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd58…30c0backed Yes9c318$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670b…afb9backed Yes9c317$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc3…69f2backed Yes7c316$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b2…a070backed Yes9c314$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d20…e861backed Yes8c306$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7cd…85b0backed Yes9c299$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf38e…7822backed Yes6c299$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57af…9165backed Yes8c298$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3715…ea6fbacked Yes7c296$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe503…0975backed Yes6c292$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb1…46ebbacked Yes7c288$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafc…6779backed Yes6c287$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbf…0850backed Yes7c285$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0f…9c8fbacked Yes9c284$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed No71c281$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.071040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadad…f14abacked Yes6c276$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3087…4e89backed Yes6c274$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…6c77backed Yes7c273$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e5…93e6backed Yes9c272$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d15…004ebacked Yes7c268$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf19…05e0backed Yes7c267$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb173…3154backed Yes6c265$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd646…0bbbbacked Yes9c264$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d1…6652backed Yes7c264$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.