TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf426…e665backed No68c26,901$18,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,608.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a5…0c5bbacked Yes32c26,901$8,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,608.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes27c4,255$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.15828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No80c1,632$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.513938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8329…96c2backed Yes15c1,629$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No64c1,537$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.823639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes14c1,380$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001844.4%8 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+43.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed Yes16c1,231$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes33c1,217$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.958450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No65c1,134$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.182842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed No72c1,113$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.771080%8 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3e…3d75backed No79c1,050$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes3c1,047$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.411538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes14c1,035$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1510950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x618c…0f4ebacked Yes5c1,010$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No66c900$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3063948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes5c817$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.323315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes6c809$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.82368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No53c791$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.0711347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c743.75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c694.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.181,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9b…ae7ebacked No67c669$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+80.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7137…439ebacked Yes33c669$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55b…7919backed Yes21c656.82$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes15c617.93$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes21c605$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.057051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes37c600$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes10c592.54$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes11c578.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5315227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes19c562$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.544438.6%17 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c558.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.045614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes17c555$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.355825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes20c506$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+140.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c503.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4e…efdbbacked No58c500$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No65c481.09$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.529142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc20…9826backed Yes14c428.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes37c425.66$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.534542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe076…184cbacked Yes25c380.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes6c377.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.934117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed Yes20c372.32$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes18c360.59$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.65230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes16c360$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x795a…5494backed Yes24c340$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes10c336.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.389129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d14…823fbacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e0e…7fbbbacked Yes9c288.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes17c283$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.783935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes12c259.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8413029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4e3…58ffbacked Yes16c245$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes18c224.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4414135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes15c212.3$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.85234.3%1 W · 22 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick26cpaid-94.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes16c200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313638.9%14 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes14c180$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.21225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea7…7a4abacked Yes15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceef…ec6dbacked Yes18c166.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes14c159.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.558226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes14c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-70.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed No57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07c4…2c5bbacked No76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Yes17c126.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.431844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes32c120$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.813455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…ece6backed Yes22c92.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No59c85.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.596246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No69c81$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.418632.6%28 W · 58 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d5…5637backed Yes16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No66c79.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.313167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes33c78.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.998256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0946…a856backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378a…a638backed Yes64c74.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…d8c9backed No71c70.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.81520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbf…12aabacked Yes23c66.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfe6…16f6backed No67c36.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.058100%8 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x623a…f63fbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51540%6 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a4c…b9cdbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1844…1d55backed No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+45.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No76c19.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6313046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No78c13.35$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.9722641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.