Us Politics · resolved market
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab7115e59c517c2ab56fb4b610760f006ff4193332449ffbd0365d97af0bd3ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf426…e665backed No | 68c | 26,901$18,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,608.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a5…0c5bbacked Yes | 32c | 26,901$8,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,608.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 27c | 4,255$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.15 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 80c | 1,632$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 15c | 1,629$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 64c | 1,537$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.8 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…8433backed Yes | 14c | 1,380$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 16c | 1,231$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 33c | 1,217$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.95 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 65c | 1,134$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.18 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 72c | 1,113$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.77 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 79c | 1,050$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 3c | 1,047$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,035$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.15 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x618c…0f4ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 66c | 900$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 5c | 817$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 6c | 809$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 53c | 791$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.07 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 743.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 694.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9b…ae7ebacked No | 67c | 669$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.77 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…439ebacked Yes | 33c | 669$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…7919backed Yes | 21c | 656.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 15c | 617.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 21c | 605$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 37c | 600$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 10c | 592.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 11c | 578.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 19c | 562$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.54 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 558.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 17c | 555$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes | 20c | 506$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 503.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4e…efdbbacked No | 58c | 500$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 65c | 481.09$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.52 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…9826backed Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 37c | 425.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…184cbacked Yes | 25c | 380.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 377.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 20c | 372.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 18c | 360.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 16c | 360$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795a…5494backed Yes | 24c | 340$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 10c | 336.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…823fbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…7fbbbacked Yes | 9c | 288.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 17c | 283$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 259.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9dd0backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…58ffbacked Yes | 16c | 245$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 18c | 224.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 15c | 212.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 26cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…7a4abacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…ec6dbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 14c | 159.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…2c5bbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 17c | 126.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…ece6backed Yes | 22c | 92.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 59c | 85.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…5637backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 66c | 79.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 33c | 78.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0946…a856backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 64c | 74.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…d8c9backed No | 71c | 70.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…12aabacked Yes | 23c | 66.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…16f6backed No | 67c | 36.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…f63fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…b9cdbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1844…1d55backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 76c | 19.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 78c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.97 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?this page
- Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.