TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf960…ba50

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
139
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.6%+$21.89
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+150%+$106.8
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$14.05
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.68
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$6.87
Will Trump announce withdrawal from Syria before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.2
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$291.54
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.46
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.24
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.35
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.85
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.3
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with the European Union before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$154.45
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+25%+$17
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Tesla" during the press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$83.6
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Harvard" during the press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.55
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+41.3%+$4.59
Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+26.4%+$2.93
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT1838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.2
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.95
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.88
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+51.5%+$36.54
Will the Japan Innovation Party be part of the governing coalition as a result of the 2026 Japanese snap election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+40%+$15.48
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+172%+$19.78
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$22.78
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+39.2%+$36.9
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Yoon arrested before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.6
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+143.6%+$102.08
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.67
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+171.8%+$107.46
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$22.36
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$251
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.21
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+277%+$107.27
Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.98
Tech Release Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+42.7%+$8.68
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+117.3%+$27.53
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.57
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+51%+$6.08
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+113%+$11.57
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.18
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+54.9%+$7.44
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$36.6
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $400b on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+50.5%+$28.53
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$28.35
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.98
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.42
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.38
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.85
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.15
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$9.8
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$5.51
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44%+$7.33
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+104.1%+$11.73
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.52
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$54.34
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$3.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+37%+$4.32
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$161.1
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$36.49
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+29.5%+$70.72
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.74
All 15 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.62
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$146.32
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$23.8
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.19
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.6
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+281%+$39.31
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59–60°F on May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+49.6%+$40.93
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55–56°F on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on May 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.4
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT+50.3%+$50.2
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62–63°F on May 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+25%+$37.88
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-78.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.29
Will anyone say "Fish" during Rick and Morty E4 S9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.6
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$118.49
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15.85
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.29
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $125-135m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.7
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $135-145m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.49
Will "Smurfs" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.91
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.86
Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $108-116m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$20.03
Will "F1" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$23.73
All 12 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+48.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen leave Red Bull before 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.1%+$25.31
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+103.4%+$39.27
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.95
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$30.84
F1 British Grand Prix: Safety Car? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$8.58
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+160.9%+$67.83
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$42.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST5100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+83.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.45
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+367.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Mizrachi win the 2025 WSOP Main Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+367.6%+$51.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$46.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$55.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$11.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MLB All-Star Gamebacked American League · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Europa League Final: 3+ goals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.