Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x336d3a00f204abd086d22c89907331c45094e2c7c59152213d8eb6d4523ec0fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 37c | 4,589$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.67 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 63c | 2,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fd0bbacked No | 3c | 1,777$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 63c | 1,184$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…2794backed No | 1c | 865.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 832.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 61c | 659.52$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.67 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 650.44$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 45c | 650$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.55 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 67c | 649.57$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.72 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 601.92$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 42c | 540.85$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 31c | 529.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.61 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 505.68$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 504.2$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 73c | 500.46$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 439.19$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.04 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 429$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 20c | 421.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 376.02$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 370.93$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 356.5$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 350.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.05 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…bee3backed Yes | 38c | 346.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 331.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 321.2$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 32c | 309.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.67 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 67c | 300$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.17 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 293.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 280$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 277.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 40c | 276.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.77 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 259$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…cf2dbacked No | 7c | 246$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 19c | 238.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 11c | 227.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 224.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 76c | 224.21$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 21c | 212.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Yes | 73c | 212.19$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 6c | 207.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 34c | 199.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.22 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 197.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 55c | 196.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 34c | 196.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 19c | 189.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 170.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 37c | 170$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 160.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 158.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 155.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 152.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 150.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 40c | 143.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 134.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 126.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 62c | 114.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 114.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 112.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 108$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 106.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 76c | 105.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…924abacked No | 68c | 100.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 99.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 31c | 97.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 30c | 97.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 15c | 92.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 46c | 88.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 88.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 40c | 86.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed Yes | 57c | 82.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 80.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 35c | 73.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 73.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 73.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 57c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed Yes | 57c | 69.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 68c | 69.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 50c | 67.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…c88fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 58.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 58.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 47c | 56.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.