Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1233efd2e4b387afd642917c348b3ca98e849f1f085a9c769fce2b8fb7d0037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 3,246$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 2,017$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 38c | 1,948$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.25 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 10c | 1,424$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 1,179$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.37 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21c…1a43backed Yes | 1c | 1,118$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…cf2dbacked Yes | 4c | 903.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 894.75$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 20c | 828.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.03 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fd0bbacked Yes | 3c | 801.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 595.21$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 504.2$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 45c | 503.46$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.56 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 455.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 431.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a0…3accbacked Yes | 52c | 428.67$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 37c | 416.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.44 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 41c | 411.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.54 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 384.25$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 373.83$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 18c | 354.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 353$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 350.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.91 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 68c | 334.9$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 330.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 5c | 297.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 249$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 246.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 235.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 226.05$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 215.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 39c | 215.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 45c | 204.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 55c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 45c | 199.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 59c | 188$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 163.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 154.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 153.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 44c | 152.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 151.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 150.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…bee3backed Yes | 48c | 148.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 148.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 63c | 137.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 54c | 135$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8570…a720backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 19c | 114.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 14c | 113.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 108.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 108.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 107.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 106.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 102.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 55c | 101.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 47c | 97.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 19c | 84.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 43c | 81.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 63c | 80.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 36c | 75.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 36c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 41c | 70.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 26c | 70.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 69.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 41c | 68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…3effbacked Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 47c | 63.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 63.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 35c | 62.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…9af4backed No | 54c | 59.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +650.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 59.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 58.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…bc42backed Yes | 37c | 58.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 56.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 53.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 59c | 52.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 34c | 51.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…7d94backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 49.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.