TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe7ab…ea2f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
198
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT17637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 176 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+300%+$37.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$58
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.12
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$38.5
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.33
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+132.1%+$58.45
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$38
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$18.9
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.46
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.36
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.05
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$27.09
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+256.4%+$51.22
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 176 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+85.2%+$92
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.