Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dd53abf4c8b6b25961ebcf61c5413900ece7b3cc08a9511d0c61b3ef9e5a6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,293,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,402,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,293,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 2c | 213,706$4,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,368.81 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…cd87backed No | 1c | 101,942$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8e…e987backed No | 0c | 90,489$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 1c | 74,306$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 62 | 3.2%2 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 0c | 64,940$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66b…1220backed No | 0c | 53,080$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 8c | 49,534$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,719.91 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…1051backed No | 1c | 38,234$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.88 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…6dbabacked No | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed No | 0c | 29,840$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…9a32backed No | 0c | 29,010$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…7f9ebacked No | 0c | 25,969$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 2c | 24,298$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…e8acbacked No | 0c | 24,140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +334.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 2c | 22,966$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.27 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…9bb8backed No | 0c | 22,222$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…66a1backed No | 0c | 18,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 0c | 16,182$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked No | 53c | 15,839$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 11c | 15,828$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.88 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…f450backed No | 0c | 15,089$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6b9fbacked No | 0c | 13,912$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…ab45backed No | 0c | 13,028$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 0c | 12,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…47b9backed No | 1c | 12,247$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 4c | 11,176$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.17 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x922d…ac68backed No | 25c | 10,154$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed No | 0c | 10,013$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…61b6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…9063backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd4…2f17backed No | 0c | 9,347$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…0ccabacked Yes | 71c | 9,328$6,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed No | 2c | 9,147$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 4c | 8,917$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.83 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 3c | 8,908$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…74ecbacked No | 0c | 8,814$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1806…5234backed No | 0c | 8,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 1c | 7,626$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 1c | 7,051$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 4c | 6,954$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.28 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked No | 4c | 6,919$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked No | 0c | 6,746$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 2cpaid | +428.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 57c | 6,742$3,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.02 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb97a…ee37backed No | 1c | 6,370$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 6c | 5,838$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.81 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…8004backed No | 27c | 5,372$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 20c | 5,227$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.42 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…546bbacked No | 1c | 5,200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…98b4backed No | 1c | 5,178$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 6c | 5,032$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.34 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…f74dbacked No | 0c | 4,963$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 0c | 4,869$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…baf4backed Yes | 15c | 4,739$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0075…87febacked No | 0c | 4,612$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbc…1d6ebacked No | 1c | 4,250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…261dbacked No | 0c | 4,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…27b6backed No | 1c | 4,169$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 72c | 4,103$2,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.87 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 2c | 4,089$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…9fb3backed Yes | 70c | 3,866$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…5475backed No | 4c | 3,841$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked No | 1c | 3,656$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…6d11backed No | 3c | 3,197$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 25c | 3,117$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.77 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked No | 1c | 3,053$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 3c | 3,051$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 2c | 3,041$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 4c | 3,020$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 10c | 2,906$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.74 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 23c | 2,809$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.39 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 59c | 2,804$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.04 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked No | 79c | 2,721$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,136.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed No | 1c | 2,614$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 13c | 2,582$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.34 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 7c | 2,539$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355.25 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 29c | 2,520$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.15 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 3c | 2,504$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…e8f5backed No | 35c | 2,502$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 2,459$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 2,379$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 1c | 2,368$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed No | 1c | 2,292$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…e742backed No | 18c | 2,280$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 44c | 2,247$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.5 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…c003backed No | 1c | 2,167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…33ecbacked No | 1c | 2,116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…ef31backed No | 3c | 2,091$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 4c | 2,023$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.63 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 3c | 2,002$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 8c | 2,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed No | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 32c | 1,822$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.11 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 13c | 1,775$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.18 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 15c | 1,710$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.42 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 29c | 1,674$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.38 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 8c | 1,624$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.