Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x277617382593f19634160f1903762e9ee7b2bd29295d6bca17814d9bdfdb950f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,825 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 12c | 4,757$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.59 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 21c | 1,738$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.94 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,397$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 1,253$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 14c | 725.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 524.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 15c | 471.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked No | 26c | 414.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 9c | 385.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 6c | 243.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed No | 13c | 223.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 194.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 6c | 189.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 73c | 178.93$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…5568backed Yes | 79c | 151.72$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 12c | 134.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 132.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 81.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 16c | 63.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…e9cfbacked Yes | 78c | 29.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.