Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae282777654bfd9548b8fce09c7e1502eced6e7194bfe1eb6d4ce23ce12e3be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 1c | 5,873$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 2c | 1,600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 1,111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…7dfebacked No | 2c | 1,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 13c | 965$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 13c | 954$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…c956backed No | 18c | 931.81$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 13c | 918$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 739.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 13c | 737.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 13c | 597.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 3c | 568.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 9c | 555.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed No | 8c | 438.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…27d4backed No | 5c | 417.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 404.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 6c | 368.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…99febacked No | 19c | 307.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…335dbacked No | 16c | 298.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 7c | 295.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 9c | 285.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 10c | 251.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dac…a285backed No | 8c | 200.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed No | 15c | 192.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 169.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…39bfbacked No | 12c | 162.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a4…a89dbacked No | 19c | 146.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 11c | 139.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 138.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…455abacked No | 17c | 125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8f…a200backed No | 21c | 118$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…1f39backed No | 17c | 114$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…b86ebacked No | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…1a1abacked No | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5e63backed No | 12c | 97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…2a39backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 60c | 88.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 50c | 86.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0237…2376backed No | 15c | 82.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fb…dc35backed No | 14c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a42…8321backed No | 14c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…aa58backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 79c | 64.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…e105backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…4554backed Yes | 73c | 41.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 31c | 39.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 29.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37cf…a390backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 72c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.