Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3ec19011b9f01730f353d9e0238627a6e810e79afaa8c1c457ab45e23dffce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 47c | 1,493$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 8c | 1,100$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 73c | 806.59$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked No | 10c | 681.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 11c | 645.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 558.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 458.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 20c | 441.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 16c | 431.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 367.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 25c | 345.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 322.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 288.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 12c | 278.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedc…2173backed No | 10c | 264.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 12c | 214.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…f450backed No | 14c | 189.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 28c | 141.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed No | 43c | 137.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.09 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 10c | 121.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed No | 23c | 113.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 42c | 95.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…1634backed No | 24c | 84.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 15c | 71.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 18c | 62.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 61.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 35c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 33c | 46.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…8475backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a7dbbacked No | 34c | 38.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…78c4backed Yes | 60c | 35.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 34.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 79c | 31.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.