Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc4fcef07ce12c564e4aefc2fcbf28971298fd748c5063137c6d407ae1c7af4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,001 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 2,718$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,034$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 841$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 821.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 79c | 791$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 21c | 698$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 21c | 674$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.54 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 6c | 606.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 605.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked No | 4c | 567.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 14c | 552$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed Yes | 79c | 476$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 4c | 424.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 397.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 19c | 393.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 12c | 194.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 9c | 190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 164.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed Yes | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 75c | 103.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 99.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4067backed Yes | 78c | 89.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 76c | 65.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed No | 16c | 63.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…4475backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +9.2wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed No | 30c | 32.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9a…f6e9backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b5…f65fbacked Yes | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.