Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2c1d7a29fb3ecbbbb320ea2d2261b141197ea28098a548271644b40b9a6fd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 0c | 7,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 8c | 2,989$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,785$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 3c | 869.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 11c | 429.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 6c | 392.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 4c | 260.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 11c | 181.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 8c | 145.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed No | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 8c | 124.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 89.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 13c | 82.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…1c4fbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.