Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d0fe31927384df0c320267e293f4fc3f87a672a3819df51c06690cb6b0193f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 2c | 2,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 11c | 1,575$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.11 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 17c | 1,395$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 3c | 991.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 832.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 15c | 795.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed Yes | 79c | 477.29$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 440.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…73eabacked No | 21c | 333.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 5c | 304.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…e6eabacked Yes | 77c | 217.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 5c | 202.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 17c | 193.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 169.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…f284backed Yes | 76c | 159.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 151.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 9c | 149.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 144.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 20c | 101.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4067backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 99.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 31c | 95.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 12c | 94.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…825dbacked Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 18c | 63.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 21c | 63.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…84e5backed No | 38c | 45.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed No | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…8475backed Yes | 78c | 31.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d5…b8c0backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.