Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4778e4921410e8105466718dd84c8d2666105b2b46647f4ea9a8bf0e13ef2393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 13c | 2,579$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.88 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 6c | 1,632$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…9f40backed No | 4c | 1,094$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…a457backed No | 20c | 1,022$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked No | 8c | 899.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed No | 9c | 848$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833d…c788backed No | 13c | 840.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 8c | 757.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 13c | 677$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 13c | 661$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 6c | 622.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 12c | 599.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 12c | 565.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked No | 9c | 556.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3509…920fbacked No | 9c | 495.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 12c | 489.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…d0b3backed No | 17c | 473.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…eddfbacked No | 5c | 443.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7f…0b4ebacked No | 5c | 408.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b017backed Yes | 63c | 350$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 9c | 297.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 6c | 275.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 9c | 258.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf404…0422backed No | 21c | 243.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked No | 12c | 234.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef07…a3bcbacked No | 5c | 214.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…44b9backed No | 14c | 174.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…b30fbacked No | 14c | 161.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 151.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed No | 11c | 142$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 136.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8400backed No | 12c | 133.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…96afbacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked No | 18c | 111.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f63…3e0dbacked No | 14c | 106$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe46a…ac91backed No | 16c | 104$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b1…e043backed No | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…8609backed No | 16c | 103$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…ee93backed No | 14c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…9676backed No | 16c | 95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…281bbacked No | 16c | 93.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…b925backed No | 15c | 92.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 21c | 91.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…c408backed No | 15c | 89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 87.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…ad12backed No | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…510bbacked Yes | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…3531backed No | 25c | 40.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…688ebacked No | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7a…ae8dbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.