Middle East · resolved market
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a65a4abf6d3fa76c7041ebea5c856bdfb9b68bdc11cb92b06eb942bae9d67a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 5,064$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 10c | 3,275$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.18 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x303b…6380backed No | 12c | 2,644$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 1,446$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.92 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…b96dbacked No | 13c | 1,304$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +409%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 9c | 1,225$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…6828backed No | 27c | 1,144$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.98 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…7dfebacked No | 18c | 1,115$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 10c | 1,110$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.37 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…bc19backed No | 45c | 1,106$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 66c | 994.76$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.76 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 64c | 897$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.92 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 63c | 883.16$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.16 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed Yes | 64c | 881$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 858.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb6…c956backed No | 49c | 815.52$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 29c | 777$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.67 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed No | 42c | 707.21$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed No | 6c | 700$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 73c | 681.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…aa58backed Yes | 70c | 663.98$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 36c | 607$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 19c | 597.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…fa00backed No | 16c | 597.47$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 36c | 597$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 36c | 574$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba7e…5f27backed No | 13c | 571.39$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 502.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 20c | 500.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 13c | 464.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…03c2backed No | 19c | 404.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…64f5backed Yes | 75c | 401.64$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked No | 7c | 385.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 11c | 383.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…a2aabacked No | 5c | 366.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…a5c8backed No | 18c | 360.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 9c | 334$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…9d55backed Yes | 73c | 326.47$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 18c | 310.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…e6eabacked Yes | 77c | 305.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 5c | 303.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed No | 26c | 299.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 38c | 285.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.89 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…b30fbacked No | 15c | 285.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f10…3c80backed No | 41c | 275.55$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…c484backed No | 19c | 267.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 18c | 266.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 19c | 252.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed No | 31c | 242.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…b153backed Yes | 69c | 241.26$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed No | 22c | 234.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…cbddbacked No | 43c | 230.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…9063backed No | 42c | 217.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 11c | 215.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 214.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…ce0ebacked No | 8c | 207.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 39c | 204.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4067backed Yes | 76c | 202.96$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 24c | 199.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 15c | 199.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda27…8e4ebacked Yes | 71c | 197.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 7c | 178.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 36c | 176.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked No | 47c | 171.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 53c | 171.08$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 6c | 166.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 63c | 166.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…6669backed No | 13c | 163.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 73c | 159.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…33ecbacked No | 19c | 159.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 28c | 146.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…2888backed Yes | 69c | 144.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 143.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed No | 14c | 143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 73c | 138.18$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 133.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…1489backed No | 33c | 131.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2e…0690backed No | 46c | 131$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…d1e4backed No | 12c | 129.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b9…504bbacked Yes | 58c | 126.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 27c | 125$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed No | 45c | 122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 116.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed No | 9c | 115.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…572bbacked No | 13c | 115.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 114.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 114.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…e4d2backed No | 44c | 114.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 18c | 112.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 110.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…b445backed No | 27c | 109.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 108.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 77c | 106.19$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2f…78f6backed No | 15c | 105.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed No | 39c | 102.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4099…bbf5backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 29, 2026?this page
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.