TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeedb…59e5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NFL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.63
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+396.5%+$1,813.21
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.41
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,070Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$330
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.1
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29,241.95
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,701Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,700.96
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$590.39
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$980Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$2,520
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$1,514.07
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,585Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$1,414.6
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$841Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$841.28
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.88
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$316
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+223.9%+$184.23
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.22
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$47.7
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.67
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.25
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$449.6
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$42.3
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-40.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$936Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$935.86
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.37
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.55
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+28%+$65.6
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+62.3%+$38.4
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+400%+$80
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$343.7
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$14
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$720.44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.71
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+88.8%+$88.19
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,770Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,769.91
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$232.49
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+26.6%+$21
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+84.2%+$160
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$699.56
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$29.7
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$16.64
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+33.8%+$14
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$73.38
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$243.62
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+149.6%+$297.6
All 15 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$35
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$377
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Bbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$4.1
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$651.19
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$299
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+132.5%+$289.1
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked BC.Game Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+63.4%+$777.32
Will Natus Vincere win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$169.95
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,930Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+65.8%+$1,269.99
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$346
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+61.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+172.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,514Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+172.8%+$2,616.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+119.8%+$109
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤2.1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+39.5%+$11.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+37.7%+$54.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$83.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Robinhood say "Summit" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$498Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$498.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.