Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe183a571dc17067628209ea9896636eddb562661014babe0cfb0c975083f808e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $750,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $750,762 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 25c | 42,081$10,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,516.04 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 66c | 25,610$17,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,587.21 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed No | 26c | 18,684$4,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947.52 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 40c | 15,939$6,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,633.44 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes | 40c | 12,166$4,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,339.48 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 77c | 9,900$7,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.83 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 27c | 8,789$2,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,428.13 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 6c | 7,857$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,356.07 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 7c | 6,530$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,086.71 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0228…a700backed Yes | 77c | 6,374$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.26 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 32c | 5,932$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,038.32 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 2c | 5,600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 55c | 5,224$2,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.89 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 58c | 4,953$2,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.55 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Yes | 73c | 4,882$3,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 23c | 4,479$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,459.79 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed No | 30c | 4,122$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.48 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e95…c57bbacked No | 7c | 4,038$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 23c | 3,615$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.12 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 8c | 3,600$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,310.91 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…eea9backed Yes | 14c | 3,527$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,033.16 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 28c | 3,499$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.83 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 10c | 3,369$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,028.06 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 13c | 3,300$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,876.69 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 12c | 3,239$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.09 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 6c | 3,110$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.09 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 68c | 3,100$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.89 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 73c | 3,045$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.69 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 57c | 2,856$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.34 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 65c | 2,740$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.63 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 67c | 2,548$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.83 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…35b2backed No | 1c | 2,399$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 2,303$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,090.74 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 4c | 2,281$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,187.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 46c | 2,251$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.71 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 28c | 2,200$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.63 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 8c | 2,171$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.08 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,120$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.51 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 78c | 2,002$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.4 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 35c | 1,891$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.77 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 11c | 1,870$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.68 | 130 | 23.1%30 W · 100 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91c…e067backed No | 43c | 1,819$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 14c | 1,766$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.43 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,727$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.98 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 68c | 1,722$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.19 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 20c | 1,696$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,682$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.88 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 12c | 1,660$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.04 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 13c | 1,541$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.66 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.38 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 14c | 1,478$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.03 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,440$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.91 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 43c | 1,380$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.14 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 34c | 1,355$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.77 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 17c | 1,351$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.18 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,295$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.54 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 68c | 1,289$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.2 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 10c | 1,281$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.82 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 75c | 1,225$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,200$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.1 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 6c | 1,181$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.61 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 74c | 1,157$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.13 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 21c | 1,113$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.96 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…6595backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 12c | 1,085$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.7 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 21c | 1,061$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,017$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.12 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 65c | 1,005$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.93 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a27…93e8backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.89 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed No | 7c | 999.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 3c | 999.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.04 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 977.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.53 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898f…23f0backed No | 41c | 976.72$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.47 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 959.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.75 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 25c | 957.17$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed No | 63c | 947.3$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 11c | 900$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 30c | 899.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.69 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked No | 12c | 899.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 10c | 883.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.45 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 11c | 875.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 68c | 852.78$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.06 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…6166backed Yes | 53c | 830.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.38 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 25c | 810$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.69 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 8c | 800$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.48 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 794.43$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.97 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 16c | 751.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.08 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 43c | 712.26$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.06 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 699.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.99 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 42c | 677.92$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.16 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 669.67$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.75 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 5c | 651.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.52 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 9c | 646.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 8c | 643.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.63 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 642.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 53c | 634.57$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.55 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 600$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 2c | 597.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.