TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$750,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $750,762 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes25c42,081$10,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,516.041,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes66c25,610$17,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,587.2166222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed No26c18,684$4,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,947.525228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes40c15,939$6,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,633.4463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes40c12,166$4,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,339.487536%27 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes77c9,900$7,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.835635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes27c8,789$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,428.1357222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes6c7,857$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,356.0746521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes7c6,530$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,086.7136411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes77c6,374$4,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,472.262611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes32c5,932$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,038.3231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No2c5,600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.912424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No55c5,224$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,870.8910857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes58c4,953$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.5531722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Yes73c4,882$3,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,302.11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes23c4,479$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.7988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed No30c4,122$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.4822327.8%62 W · 161 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e95…c57bbacked No7c4,038$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes23c3,615$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.1288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes8c3,600$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,310.9114219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes14c3,527$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.166418.8%12 W · 52 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes28c3,499$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,522.8353522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes10c3,369$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,028.0617728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes13c3,300$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.69838.4%7 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-69.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x252f…bfc1backed Yes12c3,239$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,838.096630.3%20 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes6c3,110$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,933.0917723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes68c3,100$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.8941230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes73c3,045$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.6950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes57c2,856$1,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.3418722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No65c2,740$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.6354675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes67c2,548$1,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.837945.6%36 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5aa…35b2backed No1c2,399$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c2,303$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.742,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa455…3ef0backed Yes4c2,281$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,187.772626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+83.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes46c2,251$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.7120735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes28c2,200$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.638425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes8c2,171$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.085628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes13c2,120$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.5126211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No78c2,002$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.428025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes35c1,891$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.779616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes11c1,870$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.6813023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91c…e067backed No43c1,819$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes14c1,766$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.4378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes15c1,727$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,463.9832015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No68c1,722$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.199355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed No20c1,696$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.462751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes34c1,682$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.8856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes12c1,660$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.0432716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes13c1,541$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.6612117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes10c1,500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3501822.2%4 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes19c1,500$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.3818822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes14c1,478$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.0326411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes9c1,440$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.911,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes43c1,380$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.144126.8%11 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…93eebacked Yes34c1,355$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.778332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes17c1,351$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.1827316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes8c1,295$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.543828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes68c1,289$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.27233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes10c1,281$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.825909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes75c1,225$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.22850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes66c1,200$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.19141.8%38 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes6c1,181$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.611,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes74c1,157$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.138742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes21c1,113$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.9626722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6595backed No9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003545.7%16 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes12c1,085$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.710036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No21c1,061$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.119423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes61c1,017$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.1260127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes65c1,005$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.9325023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.893016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes4c999.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$956.8915649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed No7c999.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes3c999.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.0413713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes10c977.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.5362713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898f…23f0backed No41c976.72$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.475735.1%20 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes11c959.95$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.751,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed Yes25c957.17$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.172846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed No63c947.3$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No11c900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.92218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+44.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes30c899.99$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.6918424.5%45 W · 139 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked No12c899.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.367448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes10c883.7$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.4513517.8%24 W · 111 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No11c875.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes68c852.78$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.061723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeecb…6166backed Yes53c830.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.382955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes25c810$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.6920129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes8c800$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.4824710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No57c794.43$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.977556%42 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes16c751.71$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.081389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes43c712.26$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0617126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes10c699.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9921233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes42c677.92$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.1628526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No43c669.67$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes5c651.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.528219.5%16 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No9c646.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6662539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes8c643.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.6313116.8%22 W · 109 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c642.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.872,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes53c634.57$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.5519550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No14c600$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No2c597.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2313430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.