Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf7908bfd5039e9f616d6f89c9e71da74988d6aabbf37008bc89a93f8d377ae6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $378,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,855 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 15c | 30,975$4,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,744.08 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 2c | 28,876$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.89 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 22c | 26,520$5,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,788.61 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 15c | 25,614$3,931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.78 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 20c | 16,980$3,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,449.04 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…2ac9backed Yes | 0c | 10,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 39c | 7,938$3,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,127.1 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…6659backed Yes | 23c | 5,871$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 7c | 5,822$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.1 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 7c | 5,511$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.84 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed No | 62c | 5,459$3,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.11 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 54c | 5,434$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.92 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 15c | 5,124$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.44 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 40c | 4,740$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.04 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…3c97backed No | 79c | 3,754$2,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…6ca0backed Yes | 21c | 3,312$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b4…7092backed Yes | 41c | 3,300$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.37 | 83 | 8.4%7 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 63c | 3,260$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.28 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…9167backed Yes | 25c | 3,156$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.27 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…45d7backed Yes | 49c | 2,571$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 2,488$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.41 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,441$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.93 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked No | 54c | 2,440$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.95 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 67c | 2,351$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 31c | 2,243$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,191$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 2c | 2,074$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 79c | 1,901$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 64c | 1,871$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.88 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 35c | 1,863$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.46 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 34c | 1,840$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.08 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 21c | 1,775$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.06 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 21c | 1,710$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.72 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,622$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.09 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 34c | 1,522$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.42 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 41c | 1,456$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 62c | 1,447$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.29 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 34c | 1,430$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.63 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1b7fbacked No | 70c | 1,410$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 58c | 1,404$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.3 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 39c | 1,372$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.64 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 1,360$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.26 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 36c | 1,300$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.99 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 1,282$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 73c | 1,200$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,105$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 44c | 1,097$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.37 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,073$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.56 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…28b7backed Yes | 45c | 1,064$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 30c | 1,013$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.43 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 922$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.43 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 35c | 884.4$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.66 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 2c | 847.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 36c | 841.34$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.19 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 35c | 828.95$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.11 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…20e5backed No | 60c | 807.7$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 40c | 805.66$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.55 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 8c | 800$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 40c | 783.18$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 35c | 772.62$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.87 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 56c | 754.52$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.9 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca57…f354backed Yes | 47c | 732.32$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 700.64$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.27 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 700.28$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.32 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 36c | 700$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 39c | 693.88$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc188…3857backed No | 75c | 684.41$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes | 4c | 683.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 9.9%8 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 664.98$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7596…cd25backed Yes | 47c | 601.94$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.29 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes | 35c | 600.27$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.68 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…e133backed Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 34c | 596.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 41c | 595.38$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.43 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 64c | 557.19$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 61c | 545.6$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 42c | 535.03$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 525.62$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 71c | 509.71$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 37c | 499.78$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 18c | 499.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 63c | 472.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked No | 58c | 463.92$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.11 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 44c | 458.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 35c | 425.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 62c | 405.34$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8b85backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 399.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…15ebbacked Yes | 41c | 399.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…a3a5backed Yes | 42c | 398.33$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.25 | 182 | 24.2%44 W · 138 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.