Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ca94448413ee8046daa1766f5b9143fb50ba77a2adeff6296f76d04d2a6463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e95…c57bbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 7c | 27,362$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.21 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…9167backed Yes | 0c | 14,414$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…4892backed Yes | 1c | 10,873$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…afa0backed Yes | 0c | 8,678$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 7,921$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.19 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f50…a959backed Yes | 0c | 5,867$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 12c | 5,834$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.67 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 15c | 5,596$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.96 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 13c | 5,175$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.67 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 4,181$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.86 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 8c | 3,119$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.92 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 8c | 3,056$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 9c | 2,728$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.56 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 18c | 2,394$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 7c | 2,233$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 11c | 2,148$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.76 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 2,080$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 8c | 2,009$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.82 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 1,817$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,727$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,700$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe46…8b21backed Yes | 7c | 1,642$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 218 | 16.1%35 W · 183 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,603$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,465$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,320$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,278$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,169$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 20c | 1,160$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed Yes | 5c | 1,157$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 21c | 1,072$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,012$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab47…2d6dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,001$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7684…15c4backed Yes | 3c | 965.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 954.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…65c3backed Yes | 3c | 902.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 8c | 894.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Yes | 24c | 857.84$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 18c | 699.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb372…2048backed Yes | 20c | 697.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…0c5ebacked Yes | 3c | 688.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…1ab3backed Yes | 21c | 659.07$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 3c | 652.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 8c | 638$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 9c | 625$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 18c | 615.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…9c24backed Yes | 2c | 611.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…c77cbacked Yes | 4c | 605.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed No | 78c | 578.38$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.86 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 9c | 558.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 5c | 550$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 22c | 539.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…b38dbacked Yes | 13c | 500.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes | 18c | 500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 71 | 15.5%11 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 6c | 499.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd305…3c45backed Yes | 11c | 458.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 11c | 450$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…5323backed Yes | 4c | 447.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 442.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…0b10backed Yes | 4c | 425.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc819…8c33backed Yes | 6c | 424.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 17c | 415.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 21c | 409.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 380.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 16c | 371.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…70e2backed Yes | 8c | 369.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 4c | 356.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 7c | 320$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Yes | 11c | 300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed No | 75c | 295.07$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 18c | 274.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 246.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes | 25c | 241.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…caebbacked Yes | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 29c | 227.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 191 | 41.4%79 W · 112 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca05…32a7backed Yes | 22c | 218.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 212$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…9d0cbacked Yes | 10c | 202.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 190 | 20.5%39 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…f39dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…90cdbacked Yes | 15c | 189.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 80c | 188.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…c484backed Yes | 9c | 188.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…44f4backed Yes | 28c | 166.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…926dbacked Yes | 15c | 163.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3b…afc2backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…1d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 20c | 149.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…f3acbacked Yes | 13c | 141.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…b296backed Yes | 18c | 136.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 360 | 18.9%68 W · 292 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 15c | 134.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…fe8abacked Yes | 20c | 129.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…8876backed No | 79c | 126.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 125.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.