TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc140…ac80

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
239
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst Lol at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT14947%70 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 149 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.6
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$230.42
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$520
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Nets vs. Warriorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$98
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$34.58
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Wizards vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Raptors vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+215.8%+$102.5
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Spurs vs. Heat: O/U 244.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.47
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$20
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Thunder vs. 76ers: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$26
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.39
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Timberwolves vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Nets vs. Kings: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 149 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT4816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$121
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$145
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$705Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$705.15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$207
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.44
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.32
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.17
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.6
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.02
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.22
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+525%+$117.6
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+832.1%+$669.53
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+257.9%+$131.42
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.96
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+169.5%+$678.17
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$530
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$4,840Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$1,399.8
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$100
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,326Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$874
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$2,558.55
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+284.6%+$147.98
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$385.28
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+51%+$196
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+38.5%+$63.9
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$206.52
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$121.78
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$617Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$617.18
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+49%+$73.48
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+72.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,014Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$286
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raidersbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$220
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs P11 Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffsbacked P11 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$60
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5)backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$72.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagebacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25%+$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed rate cut by October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.