La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ee978e51506361a37fc5b1c081299de6cebcb3613c132058c72bbb4be05ce73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 3,156$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.38 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 2,772$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.25 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked Under | 49c | 2,459$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 56c | 1,774$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.15 | 154 | 46.1%71 W · 83 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Under | 50c | 722.07$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 44c | 577.3$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.99 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…73c1backed Over | 42c | 540.75$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 65c | 415.38$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.38 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 52c | 326$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Under | 36c | 280$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Over | 69c | 266.54$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Over | 50c | 266.06$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.03 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…0343backed Under | 40c | 263.88$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 64c | 224.68$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 24.6%34 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…8d55backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 45c | 142.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 46c | 141.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 72c | 138.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 232 | 52.6%122 W · 110 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 68c | 132.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 63c | 129$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 34c | 128.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…45b7backed Under | 73c | 113.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 10c | 111.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 43c | 107.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Over | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…217fbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8f4bbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845a…e291backed Under | 67c | 85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…4d86backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Over | 34c | 73.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 46c | 65.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 70c | 58.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 33c | 56.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 65c | 48.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…0fcdbacked Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cba…c616backed Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…1e32backed Under | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 62c | 37.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 33c | 37.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Over | 31c | 33.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Under | 67c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…d70abacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 61c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…ef1bbacked Under | 63c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…fdd5backed Under | 69c | 18.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…0dffbacked Under | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e53…0519backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 1.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)Real Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.