La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaebe9a593f4bca708899ab33291944399676575e865b56b459169536f9fb457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 14c | 4,022$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.72 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed Under | 24c | 2,622$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 2,365$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.87 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 933.73$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 80c | 789.68$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 80c | 524.98$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 80c | 383.19$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef2…50e0backed Over | 80c | 225.31$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 6c | 221.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 128 | 21.1%27 W · 101 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 22c | 218.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 23c | 191.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Under | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f2…1e32backed Over | 76c | 177.91$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Under | 25c | 103.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 23c | 72.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 22c | 63.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 19c | 55.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…8079backed Over | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…a886backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 79c | 38.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…acc9backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…493fbacked Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Over | 79c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 1.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 2.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Real Madrid (-1.5)Real Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.