TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5602…acc9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
26
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 56 out of 100; worst Serie A at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no US x Venezuela military engagement occur in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$403Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$402.67
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$13.29
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+54.7%+$107.12
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+40.8%+$43.5
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+494.9%+$494.88
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+86.3%+$46.28
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+217.6%+$217.63
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+87.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arsenal vs. Brentford: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+28.6%+$7.15
Leeds United vs. Chelsea: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+26.6%+$6.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+38.9%+$15.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletic Club vs. Real Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+25%+$6.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cagliari Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$303.42
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.