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Venezuela · resolved market

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x784f…5df9backed Yes10c8,489$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.491833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes6c5,118$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.383030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…14adbacked Yes28c3,967$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1913…b494backed Yes50c3,923$1,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971825%2 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No47c3,318$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,758.621546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes22c3,208$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.98219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No78c2,829$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.884348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes2c2,555$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.11822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes14c2,500$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.88326.3%2 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-82.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes2c2,492$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.03862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.34per pick28cpaid+129.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeb72…1ff5backed Yes6c2,400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1375…a070backed No71c2,370$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed No73c2,341$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.71586.7%13 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes5c2,206$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.93132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes11c1,999$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes6c1,986$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.933315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No64c1,865$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No77c1,840$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.132365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes26c1,614$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.8150%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x58d7…7cf1backed No73c1,598$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7994…0b69backed Yes14c1,570$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.96728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes16c1,559$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.796040%24 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-33.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes27c1,457$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.621735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-30%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d38…219cbacked Yes18c1,419$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dfd…4f13backed Yes38c1,388$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cf…bc81backed No79c1,368$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.121650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a45…c42dbacked No72c1,335$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.65825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No69c1,323$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf79f…662ebacked Yes34c1,189$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes9c1,174$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No75c1,159$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.661020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes25c1,115$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes11c1,100$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.62334.8%8 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick20cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x108d…f80fbacked Yes14c1,060$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes33c1,003$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes4c972.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.42742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Yes28c959.26$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27270%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c951.47$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.198013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8157…f6ebbacked No68c931$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes9c923.64$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.94633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c921.76$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.761644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…3d43backed Yes34c862.11$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No64c800.47$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.81944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes7c800$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.461816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes24c800$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.47537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes22c771.6$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c750$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5444.5%2 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c715.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.08595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb3…2868backed No76c707.8$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.03250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c701$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes17c699.96$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.994438.6%17 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes13c692.56$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925225%13 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed Yes24c672.75$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+56.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4473…2ecabacked No74c670.27$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551d…76a0backed No75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2592…839abacked No60c599.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+58.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes13c547.47$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.173917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3326.3%2 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes33c499.98$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes29c492.25$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.87248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-70.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No79c463.24$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes14c462.32$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.695121.6%11 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes26c451.63$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.421323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No74c449.2$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.16862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e80…505ebacked No68c447.84$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x656f…d33bbacked No68c443.12$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes24c438.69$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.142842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd156…053ebacked Yes34c437.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c425.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.04474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes20c414.76$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.697041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes3c400.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603119.4%6 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+96.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No76c399$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.782650%13 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x165d…a76dbacked No72c390.92$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.565100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No70c358.24$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.241136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c353.22$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.16521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes32c351.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.63318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed No66c337.26$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.41450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7b…48e2backed Yes21c318.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7094…530abacked Yes28c318.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes14c311.21$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.44616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes6c305.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.862441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+58.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5602…acc9backed No65c303.12$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.121060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes30c282.66$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.912425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cb7…1429backed No58c281.75$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e6…8fc2backed Yes40c275.85$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes4c272.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc77a…daf8backed Yes19c266.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.071816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes10c265.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.874027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c0…bd5dbacked Yes5c263.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3230…1409backed No71c257.25$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59cd…716fbacked No72c226.91$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No77c219.62$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.311973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes15c219.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.921643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked No78c216.83$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.16955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdf…ac87backed Yes22c209.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6280%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed No63c209$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.