TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 16, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,770

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,583 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1a4…527cbacked No5c5,636$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.252729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No2c5,200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes66c2,468$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.694845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes61c2,197$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No33c2,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No15c1,469$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.763917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No34c1,097$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.294126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa36c…eb6dbacked Yes29c1,048$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.71977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+74.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x80a0…5708backed Yes40c971.05$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.63955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No58c954.19$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.661250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No38c945.87$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No37c878.24$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.791020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked Yes51c862.2$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.591643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes56c802.13$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.46988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c752.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes39c725.93$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.281540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No76c577.76$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes8c560.59$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.26771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.43per pick29cpaid+255%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf058…f8c8backed No22c548.26$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No35c518.01$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.571931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c514.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.95633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No45c513.46$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.063828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No30c498.49$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.333737.8%14 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+38%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2f3…8ac3backed No51c490.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No23c456.3$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.584316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes79c446.48$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.482025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes73c393.45$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.042835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed7…5f67backed Yes51c372$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.26540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No42c365.22$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No60c352.1$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.051931.6%6 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-53.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes69c332.33$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.362365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No34c320.23$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.316521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3894…66cebacked Yes64c312.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes54c303.64$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.645100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbcb3…2965backed Yes34c300.04$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick22cpaid+238.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes66c291.51$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.633318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No31c287$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.971735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-38.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No12c282.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607e…4011backed No72c277.01$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes30c264.41$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.82347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick25cpaid+96.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8e02…11dbbacked No39c256.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb253…6b67backed Yes64c250.41$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick43cpaid+90.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes62c250$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.911060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes41c250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472969%20 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed No17c249.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db9…4100backed Yes59c246.35$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.341560%9 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xba2c…db58backed Yes43c232.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+144.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c199.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14320%0 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3336…87adbacked No35c189.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed Yes64c185.68$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.23955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdf…ac87backed No31c171.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5380%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x23a7…16b7backed Yes61c163.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes65c160.81$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.431421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes57c157.21$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.532867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked No39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e80…505ebacked No72c139.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x153a…3d55backed No70c135.45$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No30c133.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes20c125.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.14319.7%3 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-50%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4858…7930backed No70c115.12$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No61c112.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.236771.6%48 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c6…66a2backed No45c107.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb873…3b11backed No49c105.79$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427537.3%28 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3039…8a62backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831145.5%5 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.34per pick11cpaid+158.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+49.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf75c…0387backed No50c96.01$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.861323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.4wins-0.34per pick57cpaid-66.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No54c94$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.764843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No57c93.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.31838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No54c92.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb883…e610backed No35c92.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed Yes79c88.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.21540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes17c83.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.182259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b7a…c218backed Yes70c80.02$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.86100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+161.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c76.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.458013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a45…c42dbacked No40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8c5d…5c1dbacked Yes27c73.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes43c70$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.551643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+92.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1bb…d87cbacked No59c67.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7838…a1d9backed No23c64.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc38b…d8a0backed No33c61.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcdb…87d9backed No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b1…e593backed No36c56.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1d…95debacked Yes38c55.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes54c55.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.084027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No37c54.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8092…b8a2backed No45c51.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes78c51.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.281275%9 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.567041.4%29 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b13…3d47backed Yes31c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed No32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…335fbacked No33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b1…83d7backed No53c43.4$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked No48c42.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5874…421dbacked No43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+62.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23f7…6e44backed Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+67.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9eb6…8be1backed No52c38.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes54c36.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.912425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.