TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Venezuela · resolved market

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$396,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$430,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,563 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e67…77adbacked No1c73,780$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.7633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa76e…2ae0backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No6c17,453$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.452729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86cd…504cbacked Yes60c10,324$6,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,138.485100%5 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35cb…bd5fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…53a1backed No47c9,840$4,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,585.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No45c9,699$4,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,375.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No0c9,265$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.06219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…268abacked Yes41c6,588$2,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,910.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes58c5,201$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.593318.2%6 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No40c5,119$2,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,068.944126.8%11 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed No3c4,500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e99…2a9fbacked Yes50c4,423$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8454…31e1backed Yes58c4,086$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.03875%6 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+136.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes43c3,404$1,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,951.831540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes42c3,394$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,983.292347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.23per pick25cpaid+96.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed No77c3,290$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed Yes31c3,198$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,198.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+131.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66f1…2dd9backed No60c3,023$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.51020%2 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe196…d29ebacked No0c3,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…6b12backed No54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes45c2,954$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.074843.8%21 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3d…4dc6backed No15c2,897$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.51225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-60.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5621…5245backed Yes53c2,794$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfcb…63efbacked Yes37c2,750$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No52c2,622$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-47.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd3d…684dbacked No0c2,542$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No5c2,480$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c95…4d15backed Yes62c2,402$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa36c…eb6dbacked Yes57c2,377$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.2977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.33per pick45cpaid+74.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes26c2,377$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.371643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+92.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21a0…dd1dbacked Yes62c2,265$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes50c2,237$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.472969%20 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8c2…a1b0backed Yes48c2,190$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.26966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+136.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8340…a024backed Yes55c2,090$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+283.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed No56c2,036$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes65c2,021$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.01988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No63c1,758$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.493828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb232…b555backed Yes58c1,734$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.97475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+216.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes52c1,703$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.084845.8%22 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No40c1,689$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.651526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc01c…7808backed Yes60c1,611$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed No39c1,606$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bea…f95abacked Yes44c1,596$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.952020%4 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dba…2ac5backed No2c1,512$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No66c1,512$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No26c1,500$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961250%6 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes41c1,426$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.274316.3%7 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-40.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc70d…a6f9backed No63c1,422$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93d…0095backed No54c1,400$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No54c1,274$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.571637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-42.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f3a…ec8cbacked No63c1,265$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.01520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f0…3803backed Yes45c1,246$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.33955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed No55c1,234$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.031050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No40c1,111$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.811216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed No43c1,100$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cf…bc81backed No74c1,085$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.971650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd910…6f24backed No52c983.22$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18d8…c364backed No74c978.91$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes63c973.92$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.095014%7 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes36c940.17$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.638013.8%11 W · 69 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f8a…ede7backed No1c890.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b1…e593backed No36c874.09$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.82425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53db…b853backed No53c858.33$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.95366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed No65c852.45$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.66580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+18.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0e…9036backed Yes43c821.18$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.181118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc854…10ccbacked Yes57c810.41$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick24cpaid+261.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No57c794.82$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.431838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes44c779.56$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9412425.8%32 W · 92 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes17c778.66$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.266521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No65c767.74$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No7c765.41$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.81633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4278…e26dbacked Yes53c751.69$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7a…c218backed Yes63c751.62$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.326100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+161.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes62c748.09$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.092025%5 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef9…ed43backed No16c727.29$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e3…3868backed No54c707.89$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd6…7807backed No58c700$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed No13c696.29$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.922365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick43cpaid+51.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No24c663.92$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.612441.7%10 W · 14 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No43c652.07$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2821346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+184.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fa8…d94fbacked No32c647.56$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed No77c646.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No76c621.5$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4702937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514c…2485backed Yes44c592.76$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.471330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.22per pick9cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes27c576.62$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.333737.8%14 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+38%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No27c572.39$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.061118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270f…bfb2backed No58c569.18$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d5…e846backed No55c563.85$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.491040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb3…2965backed Yes18c542.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.49per pick22cpaid+238.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed Yes56c535.21$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f33…bbd2backed Yes38c516.95$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+166.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No31c515.58$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.362128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No59c509.01$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.321729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No63c499.86$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.831250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed No48c499.2$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…1db1backed Yes49c412.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.27633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+212.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.