TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e67…77ad

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
157
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Olympics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Olympics at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7553.3%40 W · 35 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 75 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$61.91
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.76
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.3
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$72
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$17.6
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$10.4
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$217.3
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$19.1
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$12.2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$53.73
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$13.99
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.98
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.63
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$21.4
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.2
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$45.09
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$24.63
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+175.3%+$229.74
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+67.9%+$23.87
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10.4
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$25.3
Showing 25 of 75 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.84
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$67.04
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+125.9%+$369.55
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.95
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+73.8%+$58.66
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+138.2%+$27
AWS service disrupted by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69.67
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+41.8%+$29.5
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.7
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$60.4
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,001Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+108.3%+$4,332.93
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$46.86
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.11
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.55
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$7.54
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+44.9%+$4.65
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+69.5%+$6.97
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.74
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.92
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.48
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+70.5%+$29.76
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$91.01
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.4%+$4.12
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.56
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$49.96
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$39.57
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53%+$38.1
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.12
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$219.13
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.14
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+256.3%+$120.14
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump dance during UFC 327?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$12.95
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+234.4%+$25.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+123.9%+$33.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$29.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$53.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+55%+$11.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$35.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.