TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,152,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,981,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,152,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 275 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fee…ed5ebacked No15c216,583$33,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,327.991361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+72.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ed4…366abacked No1c180,000$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No20c113,181$23,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,114.141030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3f2…e1c1backed No2c87,324$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8235…505fbacked No0c85,003$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9410…fe7abacked No0c80,986$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed No14c59,407$8,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,099.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+77.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No11c52,154$5,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.582236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…c9dbbacked No8c52,019$4,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,054.461844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac49…c64bbacked No1c47,474$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1c…efafbacked No0c46,196$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.594238.1%16 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc1eb…3b72backed No0c41,938$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked No9c32,384$2,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.412142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da5…52fdbacked No1c30,444$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No1c26,235$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.82740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No18c25,000$4,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,417.065738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb29…47febacked No0c23,210$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…64f5backed No1c22,233$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3de2…0c64backed Yes77c20,788$16,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,781.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…a183backed No1c20,476$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x429a…c211backed No0c19,890$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6564…c864backed No1c15,957$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c85…213cbacked No0c15,224$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No11c13,542$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.467521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No1c13,416$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0222833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x253f…fc70backed No0c13,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c5…d2edbacked No0c12,590$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No1c10,726$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.842326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7001145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01da…ea89backed No8c10,000$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes77c8,522$6,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.193250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…07d8backed No0c8,510$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed6…6a8dbacked No17c8,178$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.27128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb14b…f271backed No0c7,525$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No16c7,391$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.333026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x387d…bf0bbacked No3c6,942$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No13c6,145$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.9215232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb98…0f80backed No0c6,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No14c5,804$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.613020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc64a…11f9backed No0c5,569$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1505545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No13c4,563$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.4211522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f75…df7fbacked No18c4,460$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed No14c4,155$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.243116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No18c4,069$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.842218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No18c3,500$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.333066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked No14c3,445$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2b…12e3backed No0c3,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea96…73bfbacked No2c3,132$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked No13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No4c2,871$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0727222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5cf…a2c0backed No1c2,767$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes79c2,577$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.4734333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cc…40aabacked No1c2,576$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No8c2,503$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.284630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No13c2,500$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.995547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No15c2,413$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.252630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0c4…978fbacked No15c2,232$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked No25c2,224$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No9c2,138$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.051118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed Yes76c2,135$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.172070%14 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed Yes80c2,120$1,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.961030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63f1…69efbacked No1c2,003$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…5ea1backed No17c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No9c2,000$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed No14c1,800$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde39…f9abbacked No1c1,714$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed No20c1,644$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.751330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed No4c1,624$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes75c1,600$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.455251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed No15c1,520$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+62.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ce…83a4backed No14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes74c1,500$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.41per pick43cpaid+137%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No20c1,492$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.56152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No22c1,483$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.8410740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed No12c1,429$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e1…0d8abacked No1c1,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8979…f003backed Yes80c1,367$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.63728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-63.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No9c1,364$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.58244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No17c1,330$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.2616833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c7d…6cc4backed Yes75c1,240$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.121070%7 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No13c1,200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No3c1,186$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775c…79eebacked No7c1,138$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked No12c1,100$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6713919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4612…d79bbacked No3c1,071$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a2…0020backed No29c1,048$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6098…5cbabacked No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed No12c994.98$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-46.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No10c984$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+85.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked No28c938.71$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes79c909.64$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.289646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2167…9062backed No8c902.78$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2503…9be5backed No10c896.9$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked No9c856.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28e…01bfbacked No16c848.61$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x447f…f362backed No2c844.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ff…98b4backed No3c802.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.