TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$333,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$363,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb0f7…5d56backed No0c49,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b05…1553backed No0c22,130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No2c20,684$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.272763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes52c11,722$6,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,680.193740.5%15 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f0…de9cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No8c9,854$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.237020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f8f…40cfbacked No7c9,353$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.961070%7 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick45cpaid+74.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed No76c6,993$5,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,309.244235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked No1c5,383$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.122157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No12c4,188$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.771931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes18c4,132$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.041136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes29c3,784$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.099333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c29…7570backed Yes24c3,698$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,823.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+95.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes16c3,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.9811425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked Yes21c2,806$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.281675%12 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+83.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No29c2,463$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.064835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No25c2,000$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.712636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x999f…da43backed Yes15c2,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.945048%24 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes34c1,775$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,175.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No69c1,687$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa75…a864backed No74c1,636$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.14540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes25c1,605$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,201.881241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+93.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes19c1,493$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.52per pick32cpaid+164.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No8c1,392$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.792913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…7754backed Yes19c1,375$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No15c1,301$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4111124.3%27 W · 84 L-16.1wins-0.15per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No6c1,300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes25c1,135$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.5519011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked Yes16c1,131$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946.412060%12 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No77c1,022$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.45per pick62cpaid-76.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes18c1,015$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.667946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3537…56eabacked No70c978.95$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.11540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick71cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x94cf…d339backed No6c967.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes24c927.98$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.743540%14 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed No6c900$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes19c864$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.841346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes78c847$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.336737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No8c839.43$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1570%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9f3…f12bbacked No79c823.68$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.4530%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes19c822$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.821457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe590…87bfbacked Yes19c811$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.911533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed Yes19c750$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+73%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes27c750$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes19c734$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.542259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+81.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes21c699.98$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.9811850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Yes19c663$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.032454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7789…a280backed No79c632.76$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6daa…25d2backed Yes49c631.81$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+85.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c06…67b6backed Yes20c631$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x640a…1ec3backed No6c626.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes19c620$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes48c612.34$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.2611549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1326…d13dbacked Yes19c602$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+99.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes20c599.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.992733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes19c587$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.473345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes19c559$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes19c527$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.873540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-74.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd86c…98aabacked No79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c55…dbb9backed No67c464.88$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.182552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No50c458$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.348864.8%57 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes19c455$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.552250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0967…0d3ebacked No7c450.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5565…9184backed Yes19c438$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.78650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc0a…95cabacked No9c435.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes48c435.24$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.569632.3%31 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed Yes19c424$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.44977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick40cpaid+120%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9360…03e6backed Yes37c421.54$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.711526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0e…fb2ebacked No63c415.55$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes31c400$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2762128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked Yes19c390$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.91050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+45.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes38c389.36$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ff…2008backed No51c383.99$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes19c360$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.61643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83cb…c08bbacked No75c347.98$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26240%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed Yes19c318$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5126…94a8backed No80c295.61$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes41c291.87$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.420418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6616…3420backed No80c289.21$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Yes19c289$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.091553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e0…f6fabacked No54c288.58$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No8c287.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.483514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-81%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1968…7566backed No79c284.94$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993b…2d45backed No79c276.36$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No79c269.73$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b6d…f720backed No80c265.19$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa408…ef4fbacked No80c264.04$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x486b…3ea7backed Yes19c260$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+85.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes16c257.88$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.621020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Yes19c246$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.261855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+100.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed Yes27c242.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.181050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No11c240.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6414339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes26c228.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.652650%13 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes35c226.98$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.275950.8%30 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6273…95c8backed Yes40c222.5$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.51060%6 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e13…2ac4backed No75c220.07$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes28c209.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.641631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ca…a286backed Yes48c208.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb0…a890backed No80c205.94$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.