AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f4139d9dd2c2c70baa03179822f72b4c4d5e1aa8bd687adc0c6d460df4e6b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $363,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed No | 0c | 49,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…1553backed No | 0c | 22,130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 2c | 20,684$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.27 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 52c | 11,722$6,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,680.19 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…de9cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 8c | 9,854$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.23 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 7c | 9,353$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 76c | 6,993$5,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,309.24 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 1c | 5,383$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 12c | 4,188$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.77 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 18c | 4,132$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,377.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,784$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.09 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed Yes | 24c | 3,698$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.98 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 21c | 2,806$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.28 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 29c | 2,463$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.06 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 25c | 2,000$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.7 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.94 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 34c | 1,775$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 69c | 1,687$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 74c | 1,636$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 25c | 1,605$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,493$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 32cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 8c | 1,392$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 19c | 1,375$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 15c | 1,301$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.41 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 6c | 1,300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 25c | 1,135$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.55 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 16c | 1,131$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.41 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 77c | 1,022$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 18c | 1,015$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.66 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…56eabacked No | 70c | 978.95$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…d339backed No | 6c | 967.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 24c | 927.98$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.74 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed No | 6c | 900$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 19c | 864$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 78c | 847$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.33 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 8c | 839.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…f12bbacked No | 79c | 823.68$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 822$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 19c | 811$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 19c | 750$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +73%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked Yes | 27c | 750$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 19c | 734$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 21c | 699.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.98 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 19c | 663$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 79c | 632.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…25d2backed Yes | 49c | 631.81$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 20c | 631$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640a…1ec3backed No | 6c | 626.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked Yes | 19c | 620$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 48c | 612.34$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.26 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked Yes | 19c | 602$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 20c | 599.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.99 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 19c | 587$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 19c | 559$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.79 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 19c | 527$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.87 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd86c…98aabacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 67c | 464.88$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.18 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 50c | 458$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.34 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 19c | 455$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0d3ebacked No | 7c | 450.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed Yes | 19c | 438$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…95cabacked No | 9c | 435.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 48c | 435.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.56 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 19c | 424$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 40cpaid | +120%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 37c | 421.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…fb2ebacked No | 63c | 415.55$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…644ebacked Yes | 19c | 390$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 38c | 389.36$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…2008backed No | 51c | 383.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 19c | 360$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cb…c08bbacked No | 75c | 347.98$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9fa3backed Yes | 19c | 318$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5126…94a8backed No | 80c | 295.61$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 291.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.4 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6616…3420backed No | 80c | 289.21$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 19c | 289$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…f6fabacked No | 54c | 288.58$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 8c | 287.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…7566backed No | 79c | 284.94$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…2d45backed No | 79c | 276.36$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 79c | 269.73$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6d…f720backed No | 80c | 265.19$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…ef4fbacked No | 80c | 264.04$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 16c | 257.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 19c | 246$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed Yes | 27c | 242.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 11c | 240.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 26c | 228.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.65 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 35c | 226.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.27 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6273…95c8backed Yes | 40c | 222.5$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed No | 75c | 220.07$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 28c | 209.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…a286backed Yes | 48c | 208.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb0…a890backed No | 80c | 205.94$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.