AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a8483db0b9a5813f9e791753951877505f81a4f41c2f57be79af81d97dfc229
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $442,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 443 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes | 16c | 17,121$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,795.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 17c | 13,688$2,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.87 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ab…0509backed No | 74c | 13,332$9,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,495.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 19c | 12,112$2,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.91 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 10c | 10,939$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…c93cbacked Yes | 37c | 10,708$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 10c | 10,464$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.41 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed No | 78c | 7,026$5,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 8c | 7,000$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 62c | 6,694$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 6,649$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.05 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 10c | 5,494$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.44 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…2959backed Yes | 3c | 5,356$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 14c | 5,257$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 8c | 4,614$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.26 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 21c | 4,002$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.65 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,923$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 16c | 3,843$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.2 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…de95backed No | 78c | 3,708$2,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 6c | 3,607$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 78c | 3,516$2,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.25 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd133…972cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,308$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 2c | 3,240$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 15c | 3,162$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.1 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,966$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,943$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.93 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 29c | 2,911$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.68 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 18c | 2,792$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.16 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 25c | 2,762$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 22c | 2,752$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…e30ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,474$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 2,392$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.46 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 2,278$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 5c | 2,255$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,188$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 71c | 2,122$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.35 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a885backed No | 74c | 2,000$1,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,903$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.87 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 23c | 1,794$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 7c | 1,763$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.09 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 65c | 1,752$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 8c | 1,687$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,685$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb95…e06dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,677$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 10c | 1,616$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 76c | 1,560$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 3c | 1,549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c06dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,443$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 11c | 1,360$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb3…5a71backed Yes | 8c | 1,290$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…7a9dbacked No | 79c | 1,269$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 19c | 1,250$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.5 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 43c | 1,206$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 15c | 1,192$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed Yes | 8c | 1,173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc0…6278backed Yes | 26c | 1,159$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,143$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.81 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 77c | 1,137$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…7752backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0d…09c2backed No | 68c | 1,059$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 46c | 1,057$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.04 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed Yes | 25c | 1,013$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…bc8fbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6e…4862backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…880abacked Yes | 29c | 999.95$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Yes | 22c | 999.93$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 994.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed Yes | 25c | 969.92$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 7c | 951.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a6…3055backed Yes | 11c | 947.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…38fbbacked Yes | 9c | 843.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…3ae0backed Yes | 24c | 841.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…f1afbacked Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…f1e8backed Yes | 13c | 831.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…6436backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 79c | 782.33$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 31c | 706.8$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.55 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…910cbacked No | 78c | 701.25$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…15aabacked No | 70c | 700$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916b…b154backed Yes | 12c | 690.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…8c8bbacked No | 77c | 646.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Yes | 8c | 625.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…1c42backed Yes | 72c | 613.55$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 4c | 606.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df0…f355backed Yes | 25c | 599.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked No | 57c | 579.47$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…ac93backed No | 79c | 575.63$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…0ea0backed Yes | 6c | 561.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 69c | 557.96$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.54 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 523.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…3970backed No | 79c | 520$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 68cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes | 23c | 515.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…7b0fbacked Yes | 3c | 514.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.