AI · resolved market
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d0896c626fc9c0b52ca15f5fec3e38daf8f212462f5511d4f9fdba06dc45df1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $301,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 462 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 40c | 15,429$6,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,228.58 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…3954backed Yes | 50c | 13,376$6,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,635.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…61a9backed Yes | 59c | 11,061$6,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac7…0757backed No | 45c | 9,418$4,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,259 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…0206backed Yes | 59c | 6,867$4,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 68c | 6,440$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked Yes | 53c | 5,699$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.76 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…22f3backed No | 51c | 4,500$2,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +572.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03fc…787cbacked No | 48c | 3,965$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 49c | 3,268$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.78 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 50c | 3,140$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 58c | 3,085$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.52 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 50c | 3,054$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 41c | 2,376$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 59c | 2,307$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ab…0509backed No | 39c | 2,256$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x683c…7b41backed No | 74c | 2,108$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,048$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 42c | 2,000$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 32c | 2,000$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 50c | 1,920$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,712$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0147…85d4backed No | 43c | 1,667$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 52c | 1,630$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…e73cbacked No | 44c | 1,569$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,563$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 54c | 1,528$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 50c | 1,494$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 50c | 1,492$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 47c | 1,485$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.51 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 38c | 1,451$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.51 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…08dbbacked No | 50c | 1,451$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 37c | 1,442$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…a907backed Yes | 55c | 1,388$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c0…e303backed No | 45c | 1,343$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 53c | 1,335$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…5d5fbacked No | 44c | 1,317$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda84…ac44backed No | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 53c | 1,279$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.89 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 57c | 1,274$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed No | 40c | 1,262$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x704a…25b8backed Yes | 63c | 1,244$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3624…0a47backed No | 47c | 1,229$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 47c | 1,216$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 47c | 1,204$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef1…4cccbacked No | 56c | 1,169$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,156$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 53c | 1,125$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…8c71backed No | 64c | 1,101$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,082$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610f…1edabacked Yes | 50c | 1,059$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4acd…b7a8backed Yes | 59c | 1,058$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 53c | 1,054$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…88b4backed No | 44c | 1,053$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 58c | 1,045$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 43c | 1,041$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 50c | 1,036$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…62ecbacked Yes | 50c | 1,026$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 50c | 1,021$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 50c | 1,003$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…5341backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fd…c6bbbacked Yes | 51c | 987.38$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f2…95debacked Yes | 50c | 982$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 50c | 978$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 47c | 978$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 50c | 975$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 50c | 960$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616c…aab7backed No | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 50c | 942$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 50c | 940$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dc…1523backed No | 46c | 934.83$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…b3eebacked Yes | 64c | 917.2$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…49c2backed No | 49c | 916.54$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…31f3backed No | 45c | 914$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 50c | 898$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 50c | 893$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8affbacked No | 41c | 880.77$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd825…88debacked No | 38c | 860.52$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…34e7backed No | 48c | 859$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…da95backed No | 49c | 854.7$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…390dbacked No | 50c | 845$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed Yes | 49c | 840$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed No | 47c | 822$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 44c | 816.55$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.9 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 47c | 816$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked No | 50c | 815$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 59c | 805.95$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.42 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f5d6backed Yes | 63c | 800$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…1eebbacked Yes | 59c | 790.94$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 50c | 759$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 50c | 757$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 53c | 734$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 53c | 720$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes | 52c | 717.31$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…e1dcbacked No | 52c | 703.18$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…967ebacked No | 41c | 695$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked No | 50c | 694$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 53c | 692$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed Yes | 55c | 689$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?this page
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?Yes won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?No won
- Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.