TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9279…9ca7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Premier League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 57 out of 100; worst Weather at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.76
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$425.78
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$28.83
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.02
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.8
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.00 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$397Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$396.88
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$619.92
Will "Stabilization" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$327.6
Will "Macbook" be said 10+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+284.6%+$407
Will "Most Advanced" or "Most Powerful" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$447.18
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$32
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+127.3%+$320.88
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+400%+$707.2
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+257.1%+$383.04
Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$89.65
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$98.34
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$487.5
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$28.6
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+43.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.45
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+284.6%+$376.66
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+354.5%+$257.4
Will Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$107.31
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.8%+$103.04
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$508.05
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$443Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$442.98
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+72.4%+$153.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.04
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$192.29
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.87
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.52
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$79.17
Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$29.26
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$81
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$299.71
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$236.87
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+141.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+151.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+208.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Southern Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$114.8
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Evansville Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$210.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$208.25
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+36.8%+$131.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$93.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Headshot" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$120.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerry Heil win Vidbir 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$790.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.