Other European Leagues · resolved market
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cdf0438711dd3fd75e786e185d221c02ce1f2f16c50599773c4f454887f7f1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,953 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 2,249$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.33 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8718…6741backed Over | 14c | 557$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Under | 50c | 493.72$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.86 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 429.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 11c | 262.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Over | 14c | 224$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Over | 14c | 221$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 134.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 20c | 134$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Over | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Over | 18c | 101$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Under | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Under | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 50c | 22.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Under | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Under | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Under | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Under | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Under | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Under | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Under | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.