Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x245088b395ec104c52f138a188dfddfb6804f64f765ab8a6b86dca77b802ae83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 19c | 1,255$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,045$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed Yes | 12c | 1,041$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked Yes | 15c | 896$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 22c | 881$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 78c | 853$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked Yes | 19c | 726$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 19c | 644$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 18c | 616$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 19c | 487$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 78c | 464$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 22c | 464$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 19c | 404$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 78c | 338.9$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 154$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 99.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 95.27$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 89.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 61.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 30c | 41.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.