Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551f00c42de1800af2bfdbbe6d8af5e552cd6bf6cb51a90f134ee94b8423e329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 17c | 1,249$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…eedbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,216$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,015$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked Yes | 17c | 901$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 16c | 879$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 11c | 860.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed Yes | 22c | 853$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 817.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 78c | 808$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.54 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 28c | 765$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 17c | 755$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 28c | 749$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed Yes | 25c | 746$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 75c | 746$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 23c | 727$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 77c | 727$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.21 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 11c | 704$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 79c | 673$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 21c | 673$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 14c | 670$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 21c | 662$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 13c | 644$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 17c | 635$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 13c | 630$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 23c | 629$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 78c | 629$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 11c | 624$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 77c | 591$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 77c | 573$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Yes | 23c | 573$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 72c | 563$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked Yes | 23c | 527$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 13c | 524$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 23c | 521$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 23c | 503$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 72c | 501$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 78c | 487$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 22c | 487$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed No | 77c | 484$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 23c | 484$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 7c | 462.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 7c | 461.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 13c | 405$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 11c | 399$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 77c | 391$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed No | 69c | 375$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked Yes | 31c | 375$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed No | 79c | 375$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 75c | 369$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35d2…6698backed Yes | 25c | 369$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked Yes | 13c | 368$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 12c | 362$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 75c | 361$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 331.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed Yes | 24c | 331.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 13c | 325$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 23c | 320$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…6bbebacked No | 77c | 320$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 17c | 304$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 77c | 291$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 268$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 72c | 264$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 79c | 262$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 23c | 229$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 77c | 229$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 21c | 224$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 13c | 221$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 13c | 216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 77c | 212$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 16c | 201$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 72c | 186$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 34c | 177.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 172.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 78c | 163$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 160$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 25c | 157$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 77c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 68c | 87.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed No | 78c | 83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 22c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…7982backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 58.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 41.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…2c81backed Yes | 35c | 36.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…2361backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 77c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed No | 63c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 73c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?Yes won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.