Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf64fc87ee25bc91de230bcd5e9b20dcb332089548fcc5827aa28b78976947952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,691$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 42c | 1,666$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.69 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 28c | 1,466$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 17c | 1,412$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 22c | 1,312$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…1fb3backed No | 77c | 1,299$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes | 26c | 1,102$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed Yes | 30c | 1,088$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked No | 72c | 1,054$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 26c | 1,037$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 37c | 995.02$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 57c | 985$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed Yes | 53c | 971$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 74c | 935$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 38c | 925$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed No | 43c | 890$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…2e4abacked No | 72c | 873$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 21c | 871$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 28c | 827$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 28c | 815.35$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 76c | 803$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed Yes | 16c | 802$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 80c | 785$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 26c | 749$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 77c | 689$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 27c | 681$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 27c | 672$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 74c | 667$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…44a9backed Yes | 26c | 666$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 22c | 663.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 26c | 661$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 74c | 661$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.98 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes | 30c | 642$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 18c | 641$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes | 38c | 634$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.92 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -81%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…e748backed No | 73c | 618$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 53c | 617$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed No | 74c | 615$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1160backed No | 79c | 596$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 22c | 576.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 74c | 573$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 31c | 572$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 62c | 555$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 36c | 533$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 71c | 515$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 26c | 514$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 79c | 513$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 26c | 508$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 26c | 482$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 75c | 475$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 26c | 474$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 70c | 473$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed Yes | 14c | 472$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 74c | 467$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 26c | 465$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 36c | 464$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 74c | 462$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 70c | 461$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 25c | 456$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 75c | 456$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 74c | 448$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 73c | 447$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 75c | 445$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 25c | 445$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed No | 76c | 428$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 72c | 427$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 46c | 420.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.77 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 19c | 417$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 42c | 416$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 26c | 415$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 64c | 414$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 36c | 414$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No | 78c | 408$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 74c | 407$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed No | 75c | 407$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 26c | 407$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes | 26c | 394$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 26c | 392$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked No | 74c | 392$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 20c | 389$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 26c | 386$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 31c | 384.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.26 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 74c | 381$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 80c | 376$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 70c | 373$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 79c | 372$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 21c | 372$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 47c | 371$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 64c | 367$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 79c | 358$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 74c | 357$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed No | 36c | 343$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 47c | 337$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes | 28c | 327$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 57c | 324$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 73c | 321$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 27c | 321$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 18c | 318$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 71c | 317$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes | 25c | 316$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?this page
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?Yes won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.