TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,746
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,746 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,691$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.242,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes42c1,666$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.692839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed Yes28c1,466$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.481070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1502…be53backed Yes17c1,412$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes22c1,312$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed No77c1,299$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes26c1,102$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.52742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed Yes30c1,088$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked No72c1,054$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.121040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes26c1,037$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes37c995.02$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.161330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked Yes57c985$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes53c971$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No74c935$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.11040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes38c925$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.561421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-69.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7546…2d93backed No43c890$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf825…2e4abacked No72c873$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes21c871$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.911163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+85.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes28c827$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.561540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked Yes28c815.35$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked No76c803$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.721241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…41f6backed Yes16c802$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No80c785$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1572240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes26c749$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.741952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No77c689$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.831553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes27c681$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.871643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed Yes27c672$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.441241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No74c667$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.422055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+55.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1787…44a9backed Yes26c666$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes22c663.71$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.19520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes26c661$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No74c661$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.981872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+99.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes30c642$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes18c641$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed Yes38c634$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.92714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-81%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No73c618$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.86540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed No53c617$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed No74c615$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a41…1160backed No79c596$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes22c576.8$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8976924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead6…911fbacked No74c573$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.98728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes31c572$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.821030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No62c555$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.91435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes36c533$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.881637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No71c515$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.451060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+85.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad04…dce5backed Yes26c514$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.641030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No79c513$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.731442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Yes26c508$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed Yes26c482$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.321136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed No75c475$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.911353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes26c474$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.241533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No70c473$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick39cpaid+95.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x14d5…1f63backed Yes14c472$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed No74c467$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.42966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+168.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes26c465$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.691747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed No36c464$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.96742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No74c462$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.121136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked No70c461$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.31553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+65.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes25c456$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked No75c456$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No74c448$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked No73c447$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked No75c445$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes25c445$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.251942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed No76c428$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.76683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+43.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No72c427$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.562040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0574…e49fbacked Yes46c420.12$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.776729.9%20 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes19c417$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.231330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed No42c416$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef29…f7eabacked Yes26c415$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No64c414$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked No36c414$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.96475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4bc…5d9ebacked No78c408$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.76560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed No74c407$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.82771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed No75c407$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.75540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes26c407$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.821050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes26c394$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes26c392$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.921241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…e50fbacked No74c392$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45f0…4435backed Yes20c389$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes26c386$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.361330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No31c384.26$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.2651762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed No74c381$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.06875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd4…c334backed No80c376$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.21145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5f…d395backed No70c373$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2756…42efbacked No79c372$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.12977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes21c372$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.12850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Yes47c371$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.371346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No64c367$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.121338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked No79c358$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.181361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+93.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5663…99aebacked No74c357$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.82580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+156.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed No36c343$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked No47c337$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.618100%8 W · 0 L+3.7wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+122.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes28c327$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes57c324$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.681560%9 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No73c321$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.671838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes27c321$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.671533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes18c318$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.241346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked No71c317$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa27…d1d3backed Yes25c316$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.