TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x00c8…e4c8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.49
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.3
Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$903.64
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$423Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$423.04
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$115.29
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$224.71
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$268.84
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$132.6
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$313.72
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,131Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$282.8
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$569.16
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$356.96
Will Israel or the US target Tehran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+426.3%+$998.73
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$206
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+51.5%+$114.92
Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$109.06
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$282.66
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$247
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.22
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$43.29
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.85
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$383.35
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$780.37
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$105.93
Will "Epstein" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+29.9%+$7.13
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+273.5%+$826.02
Will "Denmark" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.9%+$56.35
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+29.9%+$96.37
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$133.62
All 12 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Paris Basketballbacked Hapoel Tel Aviv · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$344.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+125.6%+$310.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$241.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2025-12-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+61.3%+$120.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$18.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinalsbacked East Texas A&M Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentio FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran successfully target shipping on March 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$46.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.