Music · resolved market
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcead60727819ea193aa95ce8ed7f8d22689090c33effb44ea6d361e8100614bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 63c | 7,163$4,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,513.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 33c | 4,307$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,882.26 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 72c | 1,684$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 73c | 1,536$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 36c | 1,519$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.01 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 28c | 1,347$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked Yes | 27c | 1,343$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,293$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 72c | 1,029$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 28c | 1,002$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 28c | 983$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 75c | 947$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 27c | 698$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed Yes | 27c | 689$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 22c | 667.85$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 73c | 568$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 73c | 490$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed Yes | 27c | 490$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed No | 73c | 462$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…e296backed No | 73c | 453$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 73c | 443$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +193.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed No | 73c | 426$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 73c | 424$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked No | 68c | 419$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 65c | 408.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.9 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 42c | 354.74$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 25c | 324$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 72c | 318$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 25c | 313$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 25c | 310$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 301.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.84 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 26c | 294.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.29 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 16c | 288.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.59 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 266.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 42c | 246.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked No | 72c | 228$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 29c | 210.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 62c | 193$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 192.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 32c | 186$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…9f40backed Yes | 11c | 185.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 18c | 182.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.16 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 23c | 170$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 25cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 27c | 149$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 132.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 72c | 128$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 19c | 125.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 74c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 109.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 15c | 103.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 95.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.35per pick | 21cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 24c | 84.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 18c | 76.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…c13fbacked No | 68c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 21c | 61.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 29c | 59.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 68c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 73c | 52.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…c60dbacked Yes | 21c | 52.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…b4f0backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 63c | 40.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…9ebabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 52c | 29.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 68c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 68c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April?this page
- Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.