Music · resolved market
Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9860cfa85bbc6a835dc23f4f5671aff599dba5dd3a565fa91370916740fd16eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 34c | 10,171$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,710.28 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 68c | 9,542$6,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,469.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 21c | 2,211$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.35per pick | 21cpaid | +237.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 62c | 1,964$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.13 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 26c | 1,118$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 901.22$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.97 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…78ffbacked Yes | 26c | 829.98$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 657.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 591.84$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 22cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 53c | 524.47$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 74c | 410$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 74c | 364$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 356.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.78 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 74c | 344$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 73c | 316$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 275.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.17 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…e94bbacked No | 74c | 268.8$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 63c | 249$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 37c | 249$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed No | 26c | 190$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 25cpaid | +309.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 16c | 180.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked No | 27c | 169$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 167.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 27c | 147$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 78c | 121.28$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 22c | 106.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…9728backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 19c | 89.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 88.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 78.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 70c | 73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 17c | 70.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…7d4ebacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 23c | 66.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…dd59backed No | 78c | 64.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 30c | 62.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 27c | 60.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…8abcbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d5…7794backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…d9e1backed Yes | 70c | 54.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 50c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 32c | 52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…3b03backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 52c | 50.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 63c | 50.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked No | 26c | 48.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 48.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 40.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 47c | 30.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 34c | 30.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…a45cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…2e61backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89a…ad34backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…ce1cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bad Bunny have a #1 hit in April?this page
- Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Noah Kahan have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in April?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.