TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1dfd…946b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
209
Categories scored
29
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.26
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.73
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.25
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.12
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$13.72
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.17
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.98
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+414.4%+$69.28
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$58.41
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.16
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$71.12
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.9
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.88
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.96
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+77%+$99.16
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.52
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$22.72
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$43.78
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$144.4
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$215.28
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$386Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$122.43
Will the San Antonio Spurs make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.06
Will the Utah Jazz win more than 18.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$106.2
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT2860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 68 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.81
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$17.4
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.3
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.42
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$94.05
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
Will Seth Rogen win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$107.36
Will Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy win Best Producer of a TV Movie at the 37th PGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$255.15
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Harry Potter" on Hot Ones?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+143.9%+$56.05
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$61.88
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$94.08
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$109.44
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.9%+$59.24
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$86.13
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$29.61
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$113.15
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+41.4%+$31.62
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+49.3%+$61.38
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$12.18
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.21
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$4
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$52.21
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$75.24
Will Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+75.4%+$283.8
Will Owen Cooper (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+42.9%+$22.2
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.14
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$429.45
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$86.1
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$347.6
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$201.6
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.72
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.6
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.93
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.97
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.99
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$573Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$572.85
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$1,066.56
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$63.8
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$627.81
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+604.2%+$153.58
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.8
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.17
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+63.9%+$30.03
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$23.1
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+58.7%+$10.36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$308.79
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$77.14
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+316.7%+$84.36
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.46
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$25.2
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$60.45
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$362.85
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.33
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$766Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$532.59
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.92
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$523.99
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$206
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.6
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.96
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$264.24
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.31
Will Jensen Huang say "FSD" or "Full Self-Driving" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$166.88
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$638
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+455.6%+$281.26
Will "Epstein" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+53.8%+$19.6
Will "Zelenskyy" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$77.99
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$115.48
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$138.84
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$427.05
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+65.9%+$81.01
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.04
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+275.4%+$127.65
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.6
Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 4+ times on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+104.1%+$17.34
All 24 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.38
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$153.21
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.98
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.36
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$475.24
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+37%+$59.4
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$37.95
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$62.44
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14.02
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$101.25
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$16.45
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$40.01
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$60.14
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$191.08
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+45.1%+$41.05
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$341.88
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$236.88
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.33
Will GroenLinks–Labour Party (GL–PvdA) win the most seats in Utrecht’s 2026 municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$779Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$219.78
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Starmer say "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.92
Will GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+58.7%+$62.53
Will Keir Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+112.8%+$253.87
Will FA win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$36.63
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$56.87
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$25.23
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$58.1
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+455.6%+$73.8
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+41%+$21.23
Will Keir Starmer say "Emergency" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$40.29
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$339.57
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.6
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Jacob Chiara win the 2026 Ohio Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.26
Will Ryan Binkley be the Republican Nominee for TX-32?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.25
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$733.2
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$201.6
Will Nida Allam be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+170.3%+$248.22
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.04
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.72
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+139.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$651Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$163.82
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinalsbacked East Texas A&M Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$28.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$340.05
AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Grand Rapids Griffinsbacked Grand Rapids Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.83
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$224.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$401.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+62.9%+$44.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+44.7%+$59.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Miami win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$274.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harry Kane record the most Player of the Match awards during the 2025 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.