Music · resolved market
Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe821ad249ab9b4a1617443c8a66814c0002e5677e35a4fb04151e7b9afca0579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 44c | 4,765$2,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.68 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 43c | 2,966$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.26 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 59c | 2,225$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 41c | 1,489$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked No | 58c | 1,465$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 32c | 1,029$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked No | 58c | 915$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 42c | 898$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked No | 58c | 868$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 42c | 821$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 59c | 786$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 41c | 744$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 62c | 659.56$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed Yes | 45c | 640$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 42c | 559$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 42c | 549$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +141%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 59c | 465$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 46c | 429.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 48c | 425.06$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.12 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 42c | 366$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 59c | 344$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed No | 55c | 340$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 26c | 257.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed No | 59c | 252$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 48c | 250.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 58c | 228.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 38c | 213.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 58c | 205.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 200.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 52c | 159.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed No | 59c | 153$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed No | 46c | 148.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed No | 59c | 148$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 38c | 131.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 114.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 41c | 102.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c4…bce5backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…6ad4backed No | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…408fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…744ebacked Yes | 44c | 58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…0931backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc562…7c61backed No | 58c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…afd3backed Yes | 42c | 45.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 55c | 43.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6820…b82bbacked Yes | 65c | 38.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 54c | 33.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e8…2357backed Yes | 44c | 32.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Yes | 47c | 32.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe4…bf25backed No | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9546…f4eabacked No | 60c | 29.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…b31cbacked Yes | 45c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…6fe6backed Yes | 44c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 57c | 25.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…f7ffbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…5fbebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026?this page
- Will Clicherik & Mäx win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Getter Jaani win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Grete Paia win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Noëp win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
- Will Ollie win Eesti Laul 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.